19 July 2011

Worst prediction ...

This is, by far, my worst prediction of the 2011 Tour de France.  Here is the result from Stage 16:

  • Stage 16:  3h 31' 38" (actual), 4h 05' 59" (prediction), 34' 21" slow (16.23% error)
I am stunned by how fast this stage turned out to be.  Here is Thor Hushovd's average speed:
  • Stage 16:  12.80 m/s (28.6 mph)
Except for the team time trial in Stage 2, the above average speed is the largest so far.  I never thought that a stage that is almost entirely uphill could have such a large average speed.  The God of Thunder certainly shocked me today!  Was there a massive tailwind today???

Here is my prediction for Stage 17:
  • Stage 17:  4h 32' 07" (prediction)
I am shocked that today's stage was well under four hours.  Stage 14 was won in over five hours.  Tomorrow's Stage 17 does not have as many brutal climbs as were found in Stage 14.  Stage 17 should end with a great downhill sprint into the Italian city of Pinerolo.

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