2011 Tour de France

After a six-year hiatus, I decided to model this year's Tour de France.  For those interested in the physics details, click here for a paper I published with Ben Hannas back in 2005.  The profile data available on the Tour de France website is, unfortunately, not as good as the data I've used in the past.  There are only about half the points available this year.  That means that the mesh I use is more coarse this time around.


Due to the fact that I've been in the process of moving, I've not been able to post predictions before the first three stages.  The list below shows my predictions, the actual winning stage time, and my error.

• Stage 1:  4h 41' 31" (actual), 4h 40' 01" (prediction), -1' 30" fast (-0.53% error)
• Stage 2:  25' 16" (actual), 26' 35" (prediction), 1' 19" slow (5.2% error)
• Stage 3:  4h 40' 21" (actual), 4h 44' 55" (prediction), 4' 34" slow (1.63% error)

I've a guess why my model was a tad slow on the team trial (Stage 2).  That stage was quite flat. My model distinguishes between positive and negative road angles.  I probably have too little power on some of the tiny, but negative, road angles.  I am quite pleased with how Stages 1 and 3 came out!

Okay, so the above three stages show my predictions after the stages were completed.  I'll give it a shot and predict the rest of the stages ahead of time.  Here is what I've got for Stage 4:

• Stage 4:  4h 9' 29" (prediction)

I'll keep my fingers crossed!