- Stage 10: 3h 31' 21" (actual), 3h 41' 08" (prediction), 9' 47" slow (4.63% error)
It turned out the extra seven data points took me a little further from the result. The model with fewer data points may have averaged a little better, but I stand by the more detailed stage model. Riders were a little faster today than I thought they would be! Yesterday's rest must have helped. I'm still thrilled to have predicted the time to better than 5%.
Here is the average speed for André Greipel's ride today:
- Stage 10: 12.46 m/s (27.9 mph).
I'm not surprised being a little slow on what turned out to be the race's second-fastest stage (excluding Stage 2's team time trial).
My prediction for Stage 11 is coming soon.