12 July 2011

Still better than 5%!

After a great sprint to end today's stage, here are the Stage 10 results:

  • Stage 10:  3h 31' 21" (actual), 3h 41' 08" (prediction), 9' 47" slow (4.63% error)
It turned out the extra seven data points took me a little further from the result.  The model with fewer data points may have averaged a little better, but I stand by the more detailed stage model.  Riders were a little faster today than I thought they would be!  Yesterday's rest must have helped.  I'm still thrilled to have predicted the time to better than 5%.

Here is the average speed for Andr√© Greipel's ride today:
  • Stage 10:  12.46 m/s (27.9 mph).
I'm not surprised being a little slow on what turned out to be the race's second-fastest stage (excluding Stage 2's team time trial).

My prediction for Stage 11 is coming soon.

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