13 July 2011

Missed Stage 11 by TWO SECONDS!!!

This is by far my best stage prediction of this year's Tour de France!  Here are today's results:

  • Stage 11:  3h 46' 07" (actual), 3h 46' 05" (prediction), -02" fast (-0.01% error)
Here is Mark Cavendish's average speed for today's win:
  • Stage 11:  12.35 m/s (27.6 mph)
Stage 12 is a great mountain stage, which finishes in Luz Ardiden.  There are three big climbs in the stage.  Ben Hannas sent me a couple of extra data points so that I could adequately model the motion through the valleys.  The net elevation increase from start to finish will be 1.55 km (0.96 mile).  Here is my prediction:
  • Stage 12:  5h 59' 26" (prediction)
I am hoping that the winner can complete the stage in just under six hours.

Okay, it's time to get home to watch the US women take on France in the World Cup semifinals.

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