08 July 2011

A bit fast on Stage 7 ...

Here are the results for Stage 7:

  • Stage 7:  5h 38' 53" (actual), 5h 11' 43" (prediction), -27' 10" fast (-8.02% error)
Given the complexity of modeling the Tour de France, I'm usually happy to predict a stage-winning time to better than 10%.  Stage 7 was flat enough that I thought I could do a little better than 8% error.  I'll have to analyze the race footage to see what might have slowed the riders down today.  I saw there was a crash, but I'm not sure if that contributed to a time longer than what I predicted.

Stage 8 has a great climb near the end of the race.  Here is my prediction for that stage:
  • Stage 8:  4h 47' 37" (prediction)
My colleague, Ben Hannas, has offered some valuable suggestions for increasing the number of data points.  We will include some additional points for Stage 9, which the Tour de France website's profile desperately needs (no data for the four valleys in the middle of the stage!).  Ben graduated Lynchburg College in 2003 and now has his own company that specializes in analyzing energy usage in buildings.  Click here for his website.

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