Almost nailed Stage 4!

Stage 4 just ended.  Here are the results:

• Stage 4:  4h 11' 39" (actual), 4h 9' 29" (prediction), -2' 10" fast (-0.86% error)

Hey, not bad!  That's my second stage under 1% error.

For Stage 5, here is what I predict:

• Stage 5:  3h 52' 05" (prediction)

This stage worries me a little because the profile (click here and then click on the "Profile" tab at the lower left part of the page) given on the Tour de France website has very few data points.  If you look at the stage online, you'll see lots of peaks and valleys that are not labeled.  Oh well, let's see how well my model averages over the missing data!