Tadej Pogačar will turn 22 years old tomorrow. What a way to end his 22nd year! He and his team rode well today and Pogačar was able to finish in the final bunch. What an amazing Tour de France for Pogačar! He won each of the mountain stages before rest days, giving his competition something to think about on days off from racing, and then road a time trial for the ages yesterday. Pogačar was the best climber and the best young rider, meaning he leaves the Tour de France with the yellow, polka dot, and white jerseys. The Tour de France concludes by having Pogačar on the center of the final podium with second-place finisher and fellow Slovenian Primož Roglič on Pogačar's right and third-place finisher Richie Porte on Pogačar's left.
The final stage is such a celebration of Paris. It's hard for me to watch the final eight circuits and not want to return to France to visit Paris! Check out cyclists on the roundabout at the Arc de Triomphe.
What a lovely sight!
The final sprint to the finish line was thrilling. Sam Bennett sealed the deal on the green jersey earlier in the stage, but that didn't stop him from an explosive effort in the final 100 m.
We finished the Tour de France this year with a good prediction.
- Stage 21: 2h 53' 32" (actual), 2h 57' 44" (prediction), 04' 12" slow (2.42% error)
We usually do well on the last stage. Until the riders get to Paris, cycling is slow, but then those vying for the stage win kick it up and fly through the streets of Paris. I'm happy to finish under 3% error! Check out Bennett's average speed below.
- Stage 21: 11.72 m/s (42.18 kph or 26.21 mph)
That's actually pretty high for the final stage, but not unreasonably so. It was great seeing fast racing on the final couple of circuits. Bennett donned his green jersey with Pogačar and his three jerseys for a final trip to the podium.
No sports fan, or anyone for that matter, will see 2020 as a great year. But at least we had a wonderful Tour de France to watch, despite the delayed start. The 2021 Tour de France begins 9 months and 6 days from today. Let's hope 2021 is a better year, the race begins on time, and life is closer to normal.
There is much to learn on the scientific front from this year's Tour de France. And that's what is so great about being a scientist -- there is always more to learn. Advancing technologies continue to make riders fitter, healthier, stronger, more efficient with their power output, more aerodynamic with better clothes and bikes, and better equipped with strategies for riding all the stages.
Modeling the Tour de France each year is a part of my scientific research. Using the laws of physics and terrain information to predict the winning time for each stage, and then posting a stage prediction the day before each stage takes place is merely a little fun on top of all the research. My physics research students at the University of Lynchburg make my work all that much more rewarding. We certainly love watching the Tour de France for three weeks and we root for our predictions. But the real joy comes from discovering more about how the natural world works and learning how science and technology continue to push the envelope of what's possible in the world of sport. I thank Noah Baumgartner for once again working with me on the Tour de France. We both had to work on the race while our fall semester was in full swing. It's a lot easier working on the Tour de France in July when neither one of us is involved with classes! There is still work ahead to dissect what happened over the past three weeks. We had 10 great stage picks with errors under 3%, four were merely okay with errors in the 3 % - 6% range, six had errors 6% - 9%, a range I thought was okay when I started this work, but not now, and one really bad prediction with an error over 9%. Team strategies reeked havoc on our predictions early in the Tour de France with some stages painfully slow and lacking attacks, and then a few other stages with all-out effort that stunned race organizers, commentators, and us. Investigating and studying the vast complexity contained in a three-week bike race, one that concluded with 146 riders crossing the finish line, is a small part of what makes my job so much fun!
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