Col du Grand Colombier Gobbles Bernal as Pogačar Wins His Second Stage!

I wrote yesterday that the 2020 Tour de France could be won or lost today.  I don't know if the race was won today, but last year's winner, Egan Bernal, lost his chance to defend his title.  The flat first half of the race saw a torrid pace as the peloton reached the first climb with an average speed of about 50 kph (31 mph).  Michael Gogl broke away early and kept the peloton pace high.  Pierre Rolland, today's most aggressive rider, joined Gogl, and I wondered if the two of them could keep up their pace and vie for the stage win.  But Team Jumbo-Visma and its powerful riders finally took over the race on the Col du Grand Colombier.  The team kept Primož Roglič, who finished second today, safely in the yellow jersey.  But it was fellow Slovenian Tadej Pogačar who won the final uphill sprint to take the stage win.

Climbs were fast, but our prediction wasn't too bad.

• Stage 15:  4h 34' 13" (actual), 4h 41' 32" (prediction), 07' 19" slow (2.67%)

I'm happy being back under 3% error.  To put our error in perspective, Egan Bernal finished in 25th place, 07' 20" behind the winner.  In other words, my model exactly nailed Bernal's time.  Given that he won last year, that's pretty good!  But Team Jumbo-Visma just dominated today, especially with the work done by Wout van Aert and Tom Dumoulin on the final climb.

• Stage 15:  10.61 m/s (38.18 kph or 23.72 mph)

My model had the winning average speed about 1 kph slower.  Great racing today!

Tomorrow is the second rest day of this year's Tour de France.  Riders will be in Isère tomorrow, preparing for three consecutive brutal mountain stages in the Alps.  I'll post our Stage 16 prediction tomorrow.