Breathtaking Time Trial from Tadej Pogačar!

For much of today's individual time trial, we had a shot at perfection.  Stefan Küng came in with exactly our prediction.  But the defending champion, Tadej Pogačar, began tearing up time splits.  I knew perfection would slip from our grasp.  Pogačar's ride was amazing!  He looked like a machine on his bike.  Check out Pogačar crossing the finish line as Küng sees himself slide into second place.

We still had a great prediction with our third stage under 1% error.

• Stage 5:  32' 00" (actual), 32' 19" (prediction), 00' 19" slow (0.99% error)

Now hold your breath for Pogačar's average speed.

• Stage 5:  14.17 m/s (51.00 kph or 31.69 mph)

He hit a top speed of 74.4 kph (46.2 mph).  The 22-year-old Slovenian is amazing!  Mathieu van der Poel rode an inspirational final kilometer to hold onto the yellow jersey.

Tomorrow's 160.6-km (99.79-mi) flat stage begins in Tours and takes riders southeast to Châteauroux.  Cyclists will have to conserve a little for the three brutal stages that follow.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 6:  3h 36' 46" (prediction)

I'll be curious to see if there is a lot of attacking to set up positions before the mountains.  Will we be too slow with a few breakout riders setting a torrid pace???

Manx Missile Wins #31!

The last kilometer of today's Stage 4 was about the most exciting kilometer of racing I've seen.  Brent Van Moer looked to have a real shot to win out of the breakaway, but he was caught inside of 200 m.  And then Mark Cavendish did what he's done so well in the past.  He flat-out fired past his competition toward the finish line.  Cavendish was so emotional after his win.  Congrats to the Manx Missile for being BACK!

Cavendish will don the green jersey tomorrow.  We had another great prediction today.

• Stage 4:  3h 20' 17" (actual), 3h 23' 45" (prediction), 03' 28" slow (1.73% error)

I'm getting nervous because a terrible prediction has to be coming soon!  But for now, I'm pleased with how my model is performing.  Cavendish's average speed is below.

• Stage 4:  12.52 m/s (45.06 kph or 28.00 mph)

It will be a joy seeing Cavendish in green tomorrow during the first of two individual time trials.  Beginning in the northwest commune of Changé, cyclists will travel 27.2 km (16.9 mi) in a clockwise circle to Laval.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 5:  32' 19" (prediction)

I can't wait to see some fast racing tomorrow!

Merlier Takes Stage 3!

Traveling over the weekend meant I couldn't watch the Tour de France.  I did, however, notice that our predictions for the first two stages were quite nice.  Below is a quick summary.

• Stage 1:  4h 39' 05" (actual), 4h 36' 19" (prediction), 02' 46" fast (-0.99% error)
• Stage 2:  4h 18' 30" (actual), 4h 17' 14" (prediction), 01' 16" fast (-0.49% error)

Not too bad for the first two stages!  I'll have to watch them on replay at some point in the future to see if I can understand what we did well with our model.

Today's Stage 3 was marred by several bad crashes.  Even the last sprint was tough to watch as Tim Merlier claimed victory.

We were a little slower today with our prediction, but we still came close to Merlier's actual winning time.

• Stage 3:  4h 01' 28" (actual), 4h 07' 58" (prediction), 06' 30" slow (2.69% error)

The crashes will take some of the deserved headlines away from Merlier, who cycled great today in winning his first Tour de France stage.  Check out his average speed.

• Stage 3:  12.62 m/s (45.45 kph or 28.24 mph)

Tomorrow's Stage 4 commences in the commune of Redon, and then takes riders 150.4 km (93.45 mi) northeast to Fougères.  Our prediction for the flat stage is given below.

• Stage 4:  3h 23' 45" (prediction)

I certainly hope there are no crashes tomorrow!  If we miss much tomorrow, I think we'll be slow.  But then again, cyclists may conserve a little for the next day's individual time trial.

It's Tour de France Time!

For a myriad of reasons, I've not written a blog post in quite some time.  But with the Tour de France commencing this Saturday, it's time to get back to blog writing!  The world's most famous bike race starts in the far western part of France, in Brest.  My University of Lynchburg research student, Noah Baumgartner, and I have our model ready for stage-winning time predictions.  We take terrain data and the laws of physics, plus some measured parameters associated with cycling, and then toss them all into a computer to predict the time needed for the best of the best to complete each stage.   We don't focus on a single cyclist, but instead focus on what the best cyclist for a given stage could do.

A prior commitment has me out of town over the next three days, which means I won't be able to watch the first two stages.  I'll write more detailed blog posts when I return next week.  For now, I'll give our predictions for the first three stages.

• Stage 1:  4h 36' 19" (prediction)
• Stage 2:  4h 17' 14" (prediction)
• Stage 3:  4h 07' 58" (prediction)

As has always been the case for my Tour de France work, the science is what interests me the most.  Studying the race, including a post-race analysis, will provide me with lots of insights into elite cycling.  Blog post predictions in this space have always been an element of fun that I've infused into my scientific work.  We don't know exactly what weather will be like on a given stage, we aren't privy to teams' strategies, knowing when riders need to relieve themselves isn't on our radar screen, and we can't predict crashes.  The stages we really miss are the ones that teach us the most.

I'll be back on Monday to watch Stage 3, though I may have to sneak a peek while I'm away to see how our predictions fared on the first two stages.  Enjoy the 108th edition of the Tour de France!