Pogačar Performs Slovenian Swap in Historic Ride!

I've modeled the Tour de France for 17 years, but I've never seen anything so exciting as today's Stage 20.  The split screen with Primož Roglič in yellow on the left and Tadej Pogačar on the right made for incredible drama.

Pogačar rode a time trial for the ages.  He kept obliterating the times at checkpoints, and he continued to shave time off the lead Roglič had on him.  The top two general classification competitors were about 1 km apart heading to the finish.  Roglič entered the day with a 57" lead on Pogačar, but Pogačar finished today's action with a 59" lead on Roglič.  The two Slovenians will be on the podium in Paris tomorrow, but Pogačar's glorious ride today made sure that he would be on top.

Our prediction was a bit fast today.  The final climb took a little longer than we expected.  But after watching Pogačar blow the field away on that climb, I know that we have more work to do to better understand that climb.

• Stage 20:  55' 55" (actual), 52' 47" (prediction), 03' 08" fast (-5.60% error)

Look at Pogačar crossing the finish line.  That is what winning the Tour de France looks like!

Pogačar's average speed is given below.

• Stage 20:  10.79 m/s (38.84 kph or 24.14 mph)

Pogačar sealed up both the polka dot jersey as the best climber and the white jersey for the best young rider.  Richie Porte's great ride today moved him up to third in the general classification, so he'll be on the podium tomorrow.  The only suspense in tomorrow's final stage will be the race for the green jersey.  Peter Sagan will go all out to catch Sam Bennett, which will be very difficult to do.

Tomorrow's 122-km (75.8-mi) Stage 21 will begin in Mantes-la-Jolie and head southeast to Paris.  There won't be much racing on the way to Paris.  The stage is mostly ceremonial.  Pogačar may be seen sipping champagne with his teammates while they are on their bikes.  Real racing will pick up close to Paris as cyclists get close to the Champs-Élysées and the sprinters compete for the stage win.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 21:  2h 57' 44" (prediction)

Tomorrow will be a coronation for Tadej Pogačar, and one he deserves after a ride today that cycling fans will be talking about for many years to come.