Danish cyclist Søren Kragh Andersen and his Team Sunweb mates set up the finish of today's Stage 14 as well as could be done. Andersen was in perfect position in what was a blisteringly fast peloton today with about 3.2 km (2.0 mi) to go. He attacked and kicked up his speed as if his legs were fresh and ready for a time trial. Nobody could catch Andersen and he finished 15 s ahead of the pack.
That was an impressive performance! Just as impressive was the fast-moving peloton. It seemed from the very beginning that this was going to be a fast stage. The peloton itself appeared to be on the attack. Our prediction was a bit slow today.
- Stage 14: 4h 28' 10" (actual), 4h 44' 25" (prediction), 16' 15" slow (6.06% error)
The racing was a lot of fun to watch, but as the cyclists flew up the category-2 climb, I was thinking they might blow away the stage organizer's top average speed guess.
- Stage 14: 12.06 m/s (43.41 kph or 26.97 mph)
Given that the power output in my model is roughly where elite cyclists perform, I was blown away. Race organizers weren't expecting more than 42 kph for today's average speed. Perfect weather for racing and peloton dynamics surely played a role in today's high average speed.
Tomorrow's 174.5-km (108.4-mi) stage picks up in Lyon and sends riders east toward the Jura Mountains. Just over half the stage is flat before a couple of category-1 climbs will break up the peloton. Waiting for cyclists at the end of the stage is the hors catégorie climb up to the 1501-m (4925-ft) peak of Col du Grand Colombier. The 2020 Tour de France could be won or lost on that climb! Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 15: 4h 41' 32" (prediction)
Will the peloton be slow during the flat first half of the race so that cyclists save their legs? Who will crack on the climb to the finish? I can't wait to watch tomorrow's action!
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