Caleb Ewan won his second Tour de France stage today after an exciting and controversial final sprint to a photo-finish. The screen capture I obtained below is the best I could get from today's finish.
Ewan has the red helmet on in the middle of the image. Yesterday's stage winner and wearer of the green jersey, Sam Bennett, is just to Ewan's right. Wout van Aert is in yellow to Bennett's right. He was vying for his third stage win of this year's Tour de France, but had to settle for third in today's stage. And that's where controversy comes into the story. Just three seconds from the finish line, Peter Sagan had barriers on his right and van Aert on his left. Sagan elbowed and shouldered van Aert in an effort to get by van Aert. The screen capture below is the best I could get when I watched the replay.
Sagan is on the far left in the image, shouldering van Aert. Race officials relegated Sagan to the last rider with the peloton's time. That will definitely hurt his chances to break his own record and finish the Tour de France with his eighth green jersey. He would probably already have eight in a row if not for his actions that led to Mark Cavendish crashing at the end of Stage 4 in 2017, actions that resulted in Sagan being disqualified.
For all the high speed and drama of the stage's finish, the rest of the stage was quite slow and uneventful. Below is how our predication fared.
- Stage 11: 4h 00' 01" (actual), 3h 39' 48" (prediction), 20' 13" fast (-8.42% error)
Another terrible prediction! This has been a Tour de France unlike any I've modeled before. There have always been two or three stages that we've missed wildly. My model works on the idea that an elite cyclist will win the stage while performing at an elite level. But this year, Stages 3, 5, 8, and 11 have more resembled fun rides through the French countryside than what I've seen in past years, which was cyclists breaking away from the peloton, having to be chased down, and keeping the peloton's speed high. Stage 5 was nearly unwatchable because there were zero breakaways. Zero. I don't know if the global pandemic and the postponed start to the race have influenced this year's edition of the Tour de France. Stage 7 was an example of cyclists going ballistic and outperforming my model, so the cyclists clearly have it in them to output more power. That always happens once or twice a year. I've simply not seen so many slow stages, and we're only halfway through the entire race! Ewan's average speed is given below.
- Stage 11: 11.63 m/s (41.87 kph or 26.02 mph)
That's not terribly slow, though it is slower than what race organizers estimated as the slowest possible average speed. I expected another 3 kph or 4 kph tacked onto that average speed.
Tomorrow's 218-km (135-mi) hilly Stage 12 is this year's longest stage. Beginning in Chauvigny, riders will travel southeast to the tiny commune of Sarran with a population less than 300. There will be well over 300 people there tomorrow! Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 12: 5h 21' 56" (prediction)
Two category-4 climbs, one category-3 climb, and a category-2 climb toward the end of the stage will greet riders. None of those climbs is longer than 4.8 km (3.0 mi), so "hilly" is about right for the stage. I want to see action during the first couple of hours. If the winning time is close to six hours, my model's power output will have to be downgraded from "elite" to account for less aggressive team strategies.
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