Miguel Ángel López picked one helluva stage to win during his first Tour de France. The brutal climb up Col de la Loze cracked many cyclists who were part of a string of riders crossing the finish line for more than half an hour after López finished. Check out an elated López approaching the finish line after gritting his teeth on the last 300 m, which saw gradients of 16% - 18% (YIKES!).
My physical model did quite well today. With today's two brutal climbs, it's impossible for my model to know who will crack and when, who will break away from the lead group, and whether or not there will be riders helping each other toward the finish line. Coming in under 3% error is always good, especially today.
- Stage 17: 4h 49' 08" (actual), 4h 40' 46" (predication), 08' 22" fast (-2.89% error)
Some of the riders eclipsed 90 kph (56 mph) on the steep descents. It is unimaginable for me that a human being could be moving at interstate speeds on a bicycle. Couple that with a final climb that took roughly an hour to complete, and an error under 3% looks pretty good. Check out López's average speed.
- Stage 17: 9.80 m/s (35.28 kph or 21.92 mph)
Only a tiny number of human beings on the planet right now could achieve an average speed on today's stage that is anywhere close to the above.
López's win moved him from fourth overall to third, a huge deal for anyone looking to stand on the final podium in Paris this Sunday. Primož Roglič finished second today, adding 17" to his general classification lead over today's third-place finisher, Tadej Pogačar, who just couldn't stay with Roglič as the pair neared the finish line. He may not have won the Tour de France today, but Roglič heads into tomorrow's stage with a 57" lead, and barring crashes and other disasters, that could be enough to get him to Sunday in yellow.
Tomorrow's 175-km (109-mi) Stage 18 has a little something for everyone. Beginning at the ski resort in Méribel, riders will get near the French border with Italy before heading north to the finish line in the commune of La Roche-sur-Foron. The first quarter of the stage is mostly uphill, culminating in a category-1 climb to the peak of Cormet de Roselend. Climbs of category-3, category-2, and category-1 follow, so the downhill specialists will have opportunities to trim time off what they will lose on the climbs. A 6-km (4-mi) hors catégorie climb up Montée du plateau des Glières will be the last major climb. The final 10 km (6 mi) will see a mostly downhill sprint to the finish. The intermediate sprint is early, so the sprinters won't be scattered by the climbs. Climbing, fast descents, and a sprint finish will make for an exciting stage. Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 18: 4h 42' 38" (prediction)
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