Stage 10 Prediction

Tour de France cyclists are resting today.  Tomorrow they will do some island hopping for Stage 10.  Beginning on the island of Île d'Oléron off the western coast of France, riders will loop to the south and then move north to the finish line on the island of Île de Ré.  See my crop of the map below from the Tour de France website.

I don't believe that the Tour de France has done such island hopping before.  Cyclists will enjoy wonderful weather with gorgeous views of the Atlantic along much of the stage.  There can't possibly be a flatter stage.  Minimum and maximum elevations are 1 m and 16 m, respectively.  Our prediction for the 168.5-km (104.7-mi) stage is given below.

• Stage 10:  3h 41' 08" (prediction)

Will we be much too fast as cyclists opt for a boring, no-breakaway effort as in Stage 5?  Will we be much too slow as cyclists go bananas like they did on Stage 7?  The fun is watching the race to see how well our model predicts reality.  I can't wait!