PERFECT Attack Sends Lennard Kämna to Stage Win!

German cyclist Lennard Kämna, just six days after turning 24, executed the perfect attack and dominated Stage 16.  Richard Carapaz attacked with 2 km left in the final big climb.  That attack left Julian Alaphilippe, who attempted to stay with Carapaz, utterly cracked.  Carapaz earned the most aggressive rider, but Kämna flew past Carapaz as they were nearing the final peak.

I actually grabbed the above screen capture because I knew if Kämna, on the left, could hold off Carapaz on the descent, Kämna would have the stage.  And that's what happened.  Kämna finished 01' 27" ahead of Carapaz.  Our prediction was again too slow, but not terrible.

• Stage 16:  4h 12' 52" (actual), 4h 22' 15" (prediction), 09' 23" slow (3.71% error)

Kämna's average speed is given below.

• Stage 16:  10.81 m/s (38.91 kph or 24.18 mph)

My model was again about 1 kph too slow.  But the model did well for the majority of the stage.  A total of 154 riders finished today's stage, and the model's predicted time came after the 16th rider crossed the finish line.  About 10.4% of the cyclists beat our predicted time.  Several of today's breakaway cyclists finished in that top 16.  Had the peloton managed to chase down the attackers, our time would have been better.  Lots of interesting things to learn from today's stage -- and that's what makes the science of the race so fascinating!

Check out a happy Kämna crossing the finish line.

Tomorrow's 170-km (106-mi) Stage 17 looks brutal.  Riders start in Grenoble and head northeast.  The first half of the stage is mostly flat, but then cyclists will contend with the hors catégorie 17.1-km (10.6-mi) climb up Col de la Madeleine.  That will lead to blisteringly fast speeds on the descent, followed by the 21.5-km (13.4-mi) hors catégorie climb to the finish line at the 2304-m (7559-ft) peak of Col de la Loze.  The view of the French Alps at the finish line will be breathtaking.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 17:  4h 40' 46" (prediction)

Many riders will crack on the climbs.  The general classification could be shaken up.  Stage 15 ate up Egan Bernal.  Will one of tomorrow's two brutal climbs eat up another GC contender???