- Stage 17: 4h 12' 11" (actual), 4h 01' 29" (prediction), 10' 42" fast (-4.24% error)
I challenged riders yesterday to finish in under four hours, but the final climbs were just too brutal and we were a little more than 4% too fast. I don't mind the size of the error too much; what's mainly important for me is learning how to better model stages like today's grueling mountain stage. Below is Valverde's average speed.
- Stage 17: 9.484 m/s (34.14 km/hr or 21.21 mph)
It was slower than I thought, but still quite impressive for such a challenging stage.
Tomorrow's 222.5-km (138.3-mile) flat Stage 18 takes riders almost due north from the commune of Blagnac to the commune of Brive-la-Gaillarde. There are three category 4 climbs and one category 3 climb. Below is our prediction.
- Stage 18: 5h 15' 05" (prediction)
Bradley Wiggins, Christopher Froome, and Team Sky look too strong this year.