18 July 2012

61 Seconds Off Stage 16!

Thomas Voeckler of France was all alone crossing the finish line to win today's Stage 16 of the Tour de France.  It was Voeckler's second stage win; both have been mountain stages.  When Voeckler broke free at the end, I knew we were in for a great prediction.  Below is the comparison between Vockler's winning time and our prediction.
  • Stage 16:  5h 35' 02" (actual), 5h 34' 01" (prediction), 01' 01" fast (-0.30% error)
Voeckler is clearly one of the world's best mountain cyclists.  Check out his average speed below.
  • Stage 16:  9.80 m/s (35.38 km/hr or 21.92 mph)
Ponder for a moment just how impressive that average speed is.  Two category 1 climbs and two climbs that are beyond categorization over a total distance of 197.0 km (122.4 miles) -- and Voeckler averaged 9.80 m/s.  Impressive!

Tomorrow's Stage 17 is the final mountain stage and picks up where Stage 16 left off, in the spa town of Bagnères-de-Luchon.  Besides having to negotiate category 1, 2, and 3 climbs before reaching an hors catégorie climb, cyclists will have to finish the stage with a category 1 climb.  The 143.5-km (89.17-mile) stage ends in the ski resort at Peyragudes -- a great ride in the Pyrenees!  Below is our prediction.
  • Stage 17:  4h 01' 29" (prediction)
Will tomorrow's winner be able to sneak under four hours?  Bradley Wiggins continues to look strong while holding onto the yellow jersey.  If someone wants to make a move on him, it had better be tomorrow!


  1. Hey Eric,
    Great prediction! I'm hoping for a little quicker pace for this stage. I see a time of 3h54'36". I don't have a clue who's going to win, but let's see if Jens Voigt can win the stage. All Wiggins has to do is mark Nibali.

  2. Bob,

    We were both a little fast on this one. Those final climbs were just too brutal. Wiggins appears to have this year's race wrapped up.