16 July 2012

Fedrigo Wins Stage 15!

Pierrick Fedrigo of France won Stage 15 of this year's Tour de France with a fantastic sprint at the end to edge German cyclist Vande Velde Christian by just two seconds.  Fedrigo is the 4th Frenchman to win a Tour de France stage this year.  Below is the comparison between Fedrigo's time and our prediction.
  • Stage 15:  3h 40' 15" (actual), 3h 50' 46" (prediction), 10' 31" slow (4.77% error)
The same thing that happened yesterday that happened today.  A group of cyclists led by German André Greipel, who earned 7th place, came in 11' 50" behind Fedrigo.  Once again, our prediction was better suited for the second group finishing than for the dominant sprinter that won the stage.  I don't mind the error under 5%, but it's clear that we have ever-so-slightly underestimated the power output of the dominant sprinter in the last two stages.  Below is Fedrigo's average speed.
  • Stage 15:  11.99 m/s (43.18 km/hr or 26.83 mph)
Tomorrow is a rest day and cyclists will need it in preparation for the two great mountain stages awaiting them after their day off.  Our prediction for Stage 16 will be posted within the next 24 hours.

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