03 July 2012

Sagan Takes Stage 3!

Peter Sagan of Slovakia just won his second stage of this year's Tour de France.  Sagan sprinted away from his competition as he ascended the last Category 4 climb at the stage's end in Boulogne-sur-Mer.  A big crash near the end of Stage 3 did not involve Sagan.  Below is the actual result compared to our prediction.
  • Stage 3:  4h 42' 58" (actual), 4h 47' 16" (prediction), 4' 18" slow (1.52% error)
I can't complain about a 1.52% error!  Sagan's average speed is given below.
  • Stage 3:  11.60 m/s (41.77 km/hr or 25.96 mph)
Tomorrow's Stage 4 is a 214.5-km (133.3-mile) long flat stage, which begins in the commune of Abbeville and ends in the capital of Upper Normandy, Rouen.  Much like Stage 3, my student, Brian Ramsey, and I had to fill in some geographic data not seen on the Tour de France website's stage profile.  The model I describe in Chapter 4 of my book requires geographic data to create inclined planes of the terrain.  Some of the stage profiles for this year's race were in dire need of additional geographic information.  Our prediction for Stage 4 appears below.
  • Stage 4:  5h 10' 00" (prediction)
Will Fabian Cancellara hold the yellow jersey after tomorrow?  We shall see!

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