Time for the 2018 Tour de France!

The World Cup has kept me so busy that the start of the Tour de France sneaked up on me.  My research student, Carl Pilat, and I have this year's model ready to go.  I'm always nervous with the first prediction!

Stage 1 begins in Noirmoutier-en-l'Île on the west coast of France and ends in Fontenay-le-Comte after 201 km (125 mi) of cycling.  The flat stage looks to be in a beautiful part of western France.  Without further ado, here is our prediction:

• Stage 01:  4h 36' 43" (prediction)

Will we be fast?  Slow?  It's always fun watching the race and seeing how our model performs.  We can't know detailed weather information, teams' strategies, what crazy fans will do, and if crashes occur.  There are a lot of unknowns in predicting such a complicated phenomenon.  But that's part of the excitement!