Martin OWNS the Last KM!

Irishman Dan Martin simply owned his competition on the final kilometer of today's Tour de France stage.  He stayed in front of home-country favorite Pierre Latour during the final sprint.  I grabbed the screen capture below as Martin came upon the finish line (click on image for a larger view).

Some of the downhill racing hit speeds around 74 kph (46 mph).  There were strong headwinds and crosswinds near the finish.  Strategies and winds had me thinking our prediction might be a bit fast.  Below is how we did.

• Stage 06:  4h 13' 43" (actual), 4h 06' 24" (prediction), 07' 19" fast (-2.88% error)

I'll take another stage error under 3%!  Martin's average speed was 42.80 kph (26.59 mph).

Our terrain model is pretty good.  After the Tour de France is completed, we'll do as we always do each year and look over the entire race and see if our model can be tweaked for various stage types.  We nailed yesterday's medium-mountain stage, and we weren't too far off today.

At 231 km (144 mi), tomorrow's Stage 7 is the longest stage in this year's Tour de France.  The flat stage commences in the northwest French commune of Fougères and takes cyclists due eat to Chartres.  Below is our model's prediction.

• Stage 07:  5h 16' 33" (prediction)

With such a long stage, will the peloton keep the pace slow?  Or will a rider decide that he wants the podium at the end of the day and attack early?  I can't wait to see how it unfolds!