Alaphilippe Makes France Proud!

France's own Julian Alaphilippe won his first Tour de France stage today with an outstanding ride that also earned him the polka-dot jersey.  He looked very happy crossing the finish line (click on image for a larger view).

You can see his winning time and average speed.  I was hoping he would cross the line one second sooner so that we'd miss by less than 10 minutes.  But Alaphilippe had no competition at the finish as he was 01' 34" faster than Ion Izagirre Insausti, who came in second.  Check out how we did with our model.

• Stage 10:  4h 25' 27" (actual), 4h 15' 27" (prediction), 10' 00" fast (-3.77% error)

Want to know how challenging it is to model the mountain stages?  Tiny changes in our model cyclist's power output can lead to large changes in the final time.  The reason is that if power is reduced too much, our model cyclist will struggle to even make it up some of the steepest climbs.  To match today's time exactly, we need only reduce our model cyclist's power output by about 1.5%.  So I'll take an error under 4%!


Alaphilippe averaged 35.83 kph (22.26 mph).  He could have done a little better had there been someone challenging him all the way to the finish line.  Still, that's a great average speed for the Alps!  Check out Alaphilippe reaching the summit of Montée du plateau des Glières, an Hors catégorie ascent (click on image for a larger view).

Tomorrow's Stage 11 is a brutal 108.5-km (67.42-mi) tour through the Alps.  Beginning at the home of the 1992 Winter Olympics, Albertville, cyclists will have to tackle two Hors catégorie climbs and then a category-1 climb to the finish at La Rosière.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 11:  3h 19' 02" (prediction)

Will a lone cyclist cross the finish line first or will there be real drama heading into the finish?  I can't wait to see how it unfolds tomorrow!