Groenewegen Wins Our Worst Stage

Dutch cyclist Dylan Groenewegen won today's long flat stage.   Despite crosswinds slowing riders down, I thought the stage would have been completed a lot faster.  I kept watching the race live, thinking, "Come on!  You're only averaging 38 kph!"  As if I could do any better, right?!?  I did get a screen capture when Groenewegen finally crossed the finish line, out-sprinting his competitors (click on image for a larger view).

Our worst prediction so far is revealed below.

• Stage 07:  5h 43' 42" (actual), 5h 16' 33" (prediction), 27' 09" fast (-7.90% error)

There was time when I used to think if we got below 10%, our model was doing pretty well.  I no longer think that way.  I want to do better than 5%.  Groenewegen won with an average speed of 40.33 kph (25.06 mph).  Even the time schedule on the Tour de France website didn't think the average speed would be less than 42 kph.  Racing just looked slow today.  The peloton coasted much of the time, even when it got split.  Was the length of the stage a factor?  Were cyclists saving energy for the next couple flat stages?  I don't know.  Our model doesn't know about teams' strategies.  We've got to study this stage after the race ends!

Tomorrow's Stage 8 is another flat stage.  It begins in north-central France in the commune of Dreux.  Cyclists will ride 181 km (112 mi) mostly northeast to Amiens.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 08:  3h 59' 44" (prediction)

Time to pick up the pace!  I want to see cyclists under four hours tomorrow.  I hope our model does a better job!