Alaphilippe OBLITERATES Our Model!

There are stages like today's Stage 16 that I watch and think, "Wow, those guys are flying!  We're not going to have a good prediction today."  We had a terrible prediction today.  I'll start with the good news before showing the comparison.  Julian Alaphilippe was absolutely ecstatic as he crossed the finish line (click on image for a larger view).

French fans were cheering for the French cyclist.  His main competitor for the stage win was Brit Adam Yates.  Yates looked like he had a shot at the win as he was flying down the final descent, but he crashed (click on image for a larger view).

You can tell that he was about to get a very sore left arm and shoulder.  I was hoping to see a thrilling two- or three-man race for the finish line.  Yates was able to finish third.  He was not the only one to crash.  I cringed when I saw Belgian cyclist Philippe Gilbert fly over a short wall (click on image for a larger view).

Give the guy credit.  He got back up, finished the race in 142nd place, and easily won the combativity prize (I love the red award with the white 1).  The image below was inspiring to see (click on image for a larger view).

This stage of the Tour de France not only had crashes, it had a protest from farmers.  The race had to be paused early on (click on image for a larger view).

Some cyclists got sprayed with what looked like a fire extinguisher.  During the pause, they had to flush out their eyes.  Check out the Italian cyclist Oliviero Troia (click on image for a larger view).

The pause really threw me for a loop.  I thought the clock was stopped, but it kept ticking.  When Alaphilippe was approaching the finish line, I thought we were going to be slow, but inside 10 minutes off.  When the actual time came up on the screen, I couldn't believe it.  Check out our prediction.

• Stage 16:  5h 13' 22" (actual), 5h 44' 15" (prediction), 30' 53" slow (9.86% error)

When I first started modeling the Tour de France in 2003, an error under 10% seemed okay.  But not any longer.  We've gotten a lot better, but that didn't show today.  I'd have to give my model cyclist a 15% power boost to make that winning time.  Of the 147 riders who finished today's stage, 141 beat our time prediction.  We actually did a great job modeling Philippe Gilbert's time, but we don't have crashes in our model!

Our string of great picks is over with this stage.  But as I told my research student, Carl Pilat, this morning, this is a learning opportunity.  When the race is over and we look at this stage again, we'll see where the model let us down.  I am stunned that all cyclists finished in less than six hours.  They are getting better every year and our model needs to keep up!  Alaphilippe averaged 41.74 kph (25.94 mph).  That's high, but not insanely so.

Everyone has been waiting for tomorrow's Stage 17.  Picking back up in Bagnères-de-Luchon, the stage is just 65 km (40 mi) long.  Right out of the gate, cyclists will face a category-1 climb to the peak of Col de Peyresourde.  A fast downhill will be followed by a sprint section before cyclists have the category-1 climb to the summit of Col de Val Louron-Azet.  The fast downhill will end abruptly.  This year's Tour de France winner might be settled on the highly-anticipated Hors catégorie stage-finishing climb to the peak of Col du Portet in Saint-Lary-Soulan.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 17:  2h 12' 27" (prediction)

After today, I'm really nervous about tomorrow.  Putting physics aside, I can't wait to watch the stage!