Gaviria Makes Colombia Proud!

Fernando Gaviria of Colombia out-sprinted Peter Sagan (another second-place stage finish for Sagan!) to take this year's first Tour de France stage.  Racing was fast and some late crashes tossed Chris Froome 51 seconds behind the leader.  Vincenzo Nibali, who came in 11th today with the winner's time group, has to be smiling now that he's got a lead on Froome.  Team Sky may have the edge in Monday's team time trial over Bahrain-Merida, but Nibali has a lead on Froome that he'll try not to lose before the first mountain stage.  A favorite of mine, Nairo Quintana, came in 112th today at 01' 15" back.

It was a great sprint at the end as speeds shown on the live feed I had reached 61 kph (38 mph).  I cropped this image from the replay of Gaviria crossing the finish line with Sagan right behind him and powerful Marcel Kittel coming in third (click on image for a larger view).

Now let's see how our first prediction turned out.

• Stage 01:  4h 23' 32" (actual), 4h 36' 43" (prediction), 13' 11" slow (5.00% error)

That's a good, but not great, start.  Racing was definitely fast today.  Gaviria's average speed was 45.76 kph (28.44 mph).  Not too shabby for nearly four-and-a-half hours in the saddle!

Tomorrow's 182.5-km (113.4-mi) Stage 2 commences in the western French commune of Mouilleron-Saint-Germain.  The flat stage ends to the west in La Roche-sur-Yon.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 02:  4h 07' 38" (prediction)

We were 5% slow today.  Will we do better tomorrow???