The downhills were just a tad slower than my model predicted. Below is the comparison between Quintana and my model.
- Stage 17: 2h 21' 27" (actual), 2h 12' 27" (prediction), 09' 03" fast (-6.36% error)
To match the actual time, I need to drop my model cyclist's power output by only 1%. See how tough it is to nail the winning time! Chris Froome cracked a bit in the final kilometers and couldn't keep up with Tom Dumoulin, who jumped over Froome for second place in the general classification. Geraint Thomas came in third day and made it clear that he is the man to beat for the yellow jersey, not Froome. Quintana averaged 27.57 kph (17.13 mph).
Okay, now for something different. I am going on a much-needed holiday. I've only had three days off in 2018 and I need a break! I'll do my best to keep up with the Tour de France over the next few days, but I'm not likely to write blog posts. My model's predictions for the next four stages are given below.
- Stage 18: 4h 02' 35" (prediction)
- Stage 19: 5h 17' 38" (prediction)
- Stage 20: 0h 39' 11" (prediction)
- Stage 21: 2h 45' 13" (prediction)
When I return from holiday, I'll write a blog post that summaries how my model fared over the above four stages. Can anyone catch Geraint Thomas??? Will Peter Sagan be able to dominate the remaining points after his crash today??? Lots of drama remains!