If you love to watch elite cyclists battle on a difficult route, this was the stage to watch. After a very unfortunate crash, which cost several riders the chance to stay in the race, and a 24-minute neutralization, Jumbo–Visma set a torrid pace. The field of cyclists got split all over the place on the various climbs. The final climb up Col de Joux Plane is something I won't soon forget. Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar eventually dueled each other for the top of the mountain. It was a thing of beauty watching the two best in the world push each other. I felt terrible for Pogačar when his last attack got blocked by motorcycles that were too close to the lead riders. Fans blocked avenues of attack, too. The Tour de France organizers must do something about fans swarming on the road. Pogačar had to give up his attack, and Vingegaard eventually took the larger time bonus at the top of the mountain.
The descent into the finish line was jaw-dropping. Speeds were through the roof. It was Carlos Rodríguez who attacked on the downhill and left his competition is the dust. Here is the image of Rodríguez getting his first Tour de France stage win.
The torrid pace meant our prediction was once again a tad slow.
- Stage 14: 3h 58' 45" (actual), 4h 07' 21" (prediction), 08' 36" slow (3.60% error)
Not a bad error, but I still want to be under 3%! Our prediction came in between the riders who finished 11th and 12th. Out of 158 riders who finished today, roughly 7% beat our predicted time. My model is just a tad slow on the best of the best.
Rodríguez had quite an average speed.
- Stage 14: 10.60 m/s (38.15 kph or 23.70 mph)
Tomorrow's 179-km (111-mi) 15th stage is the third straight mountain stage. Beginning in the commune of Les Gets, riders will loop to the southwest and then back northeast toward the category-1 finish at Saint-Gervais-les-Bains. The Italian border won't be too far away from the finish line. Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 15: 4h 37' 25" (prediction)
I hope tomorrow's stage has the same fireworks that were on display today!
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