Jonas Vingegaard completely smashed his competition in today's time trial. Tadej Pogačar may regret his bike change. He came in second today, but Vingegaard blew Pogačar's time away and won by 01' 38". Vingegaard now has an overall lead of 01' 48" on Pogačar. Is the Tour de France over???
Our prediction was too fast today. I realized this morning that terrain data associated with the category-2 climb was a bit off. That's all on me! I would have to admit that even if we nailed today's winning time.
- Stage 16: 32' 36" (actual), 30' 22" (prediction), 02' 14" fast (-6.85% error)
I'll have to look at Stage 16 again when the race is over. That's always when the real science begins! In the meantime, I'll marvel at what Vingegaard did today, and I'll marvel at his average speed.
- Stage 16: 11.45 m/s (41.23 kph or 25.62 mph)
Vingegaard showed Pogačar -- and the world -- who the best cyclist is. Pogačar will have to come up with the rides of his life on the two remaining mountain stages if he is to pull off a miracle and get his Tour de France general classification hat trick.
Tomorrow's Stage 17 is 165.7-km (103.0-mi) long and begins in the rest commune of Saint-Gervais-les-Bains. Cyclists will head south and finish at the Alpine ski resort of Courchevel. The 28.1-km (17.5-mi) hors catégorie climb at the end of the stage to the 2304-m (7559-ft) peak of Col de la Loze will test riders, but they'll surely enjoy the downhill sprint to the finish line. I hope the sprinters beat the broom wagon on such a grueling stage. Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 17: 4h 35' 19" (prediction)
It will be fascinating to see what Pogačar tries tomorrow. He's got a lot of catching up to do!
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