02 July 2023

Lafay Dominates the Final Kilometer!

The top cyclists were setting a strong pace in the final 20 km (12 mi) of today's second Tour de France stage.  At one point, Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar were dueling on the final steep descent.  But for all the position jockeying at the end, it was Victor Lafay who launched out of the group in the final kilometer and took today's stage win.  Does he look happy with the win?
Our prediction fared pretty well today.
  • Stage 02:  4h 46' 39" (actual), 4h 50' 54" (prediction), 04' 13" slow (1.47% error)
I have no problem with that error!  Check out Lafay's average speed.
  • Stage 02:  12.15 m/s (43.73 kph or 27.17 mph)
So far, my model has done well with the two medium-mountain stages that opened the Tour de France.  Tomorrow's third stage is a flat 193.5-km (120.2-mi) stage (there are conflicting stage distances right now -- 187.4 km versus 193.5 km!) that commences in the north Spanish town of Amorebieta-Etxano and takes riders east and a bit north, just over the French border, to the commune of Bayonne.  Our prediction is given below.
  • Stage 03:  4h 19' 06"
I hope to see a fantastic sprint for the win!

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