Racing was really fast during the part of the race leading up to the big climb. And when it was clear that Kwiatkowski would ride to victory, I knew we would be too slow today.
- Stage 13: 3h 17' 33" (actual), 3h 29' 04" (prediction), 11' 31" slow (5.83% error)
I'm no fan of our error today, but I was rooting like mad for Kwiatkowski to make to the end without being caught. Check out his average speed.
- Stage 13: 11.63 m/s (41.85 kph or 26.01 mph)
Given the end of this stage, that is fast! It is quite clear that cyclists have increased their power outputs since we modeled the race last year. I love learning what elite athletes can do!
Right as Kwiatkowski crossed the line Tadej Pogačar attacked Jonas Vingegaard. With a third-place time bonus, Pogačar managed to knock 8" off Vingegaard's general classification lead. The Danish defending champion is now just 9" ahead of the Slovenian two-time champ.
Tomorrow's 151.8-km (94.32-mi) mountain stage commences in the French commune of Annemasse. Cyclists will initially head north toward Lake Geneva before turning back and heading east to the finish line at the commune of Morzine. A category-3 climb will be followed by three category-1 climbs. Near the finish will be the hors catégorie climb to the 1691-m (5548-ft) peak of Col de Joux Plane. Watch for a very fast downhill finish. Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 14: 4h 07' 21" (prediction)
We've been too slow on the past two stages. I hope we do better tomorrow!
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