For the second stage in a row, the breakaway held off the chasers and peloton. But unlike yesterday, the GC contenders and the rest of the peloton were well behind the finish line when the winner was determined. I thought Kasper Asgreen was going to get his second straight stage win, but it was Matej Mohorič who just threw his bike at the line for the emotional win. The screen capture I grabbed will not convince you that Mohorič (on the right) won!
Racing was furious today. The cyclists began so fast that I wanted to lop 10 minutes off my prediction before they got very far! My model did a great job modeling the peloton today, but the breakaway and chasers were simply flying during the latter half of the stage.
- Stage 19: 3h 31' 02" (actual), 3h 48' 20" (prediction), 17' 18" slow (8.20% error)
Not doubt about it -- a terrible prediction. Before additional comments, check out the winner's average speed.
- Stage 19: 13.65 m/s (49.13 kph or 30.53 mph)
I can hardly believe that average speed. The Tour de France organizers thought the maximum average speed would be 47 kph (29 mph). The above is, by far, the largest average speed for a stage win this year. It's simply impossible to know how to program that kind of breakout strategy into my code. But it's sure fun to watch the fast racing!
Tomorrow's 133.5-km (82.95-mi) mountain stage is the penultimate stage of this year's Tour de France. It will be a battle for position within the top 10 of the GC. Riders begin in Belfort and head north to Le Markstein. Six category climbs will tax cyclists, especially the final two category-1 climbs. I hope all the sprinters can beat the broom wagon! Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 20: 3h 27' 04" (prediction)
I sure hope we do better tomorrow. We could be slow again on a short stage, or the mountains could tame the GC contenders, meaning they'll not go all out for fear of cracking at the end. It will be interesting to see who rides for glory and who tries to stay safe.
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