That's van Aert in the yellow and black, just ahead of Viviani in blue. Racing was very fast today, and I could tell halfway into the stage that our prediction would be a bit slow. Several riders got caught behind the lead group of sprinters that emerged from the peloton. Giulio Ciccone fell all the way from 2nd and only 23" behind to 10th place in the general classification, 02' 32" behind Julian Alaphilippe. Thibaut Pinot went from 3rd and just 53" behind to 11th and 02' 33" behind. Pinot will be among many cyclists who will be kicking themselves this evening.
We might want to kick ourselves for not upping our power a bit on a stage prior to a rest day. Still, I wasn't expecting cycling to be quite so fast.
- Stage 10: 4h 49" 39" (actual), 5h 10' 40" (prediction), 21' 01" slow (7.26% error)
Look at van Aert's average speed.
- Stage 10: 12.52 m/s (45.05 kph or 28.00 mph)
That average speed was 2 kph faster than the fastest imagined by the race organizers. I confess that predicting stage-winning times is much harder this year. My students and I have enjoyed years with half the stages predicted to better than 3%. This year, we've predicted half of the first 10 stages to better than 4.6%. But we've really missed on a couple stages. We had Stages 3 and 4 completely flipped, and we never imagined such a slow Stage 7, even after a grueling Stage 6. The fact that predicting is getting more challenging motivates me to continuing learning. Life as a scientist is never dull!
Cyclists will enjoy a rest day in Albi tomorrow. Stage 11 will be pick up there on Tuesday. I'll post our prediction for Stage 11 during tomorrow's rest day.
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