Stage 11 Prediction

Tour de France riders are resting today.  Tomorrow's Stage 11 is an interesting stage.  It begins in Albi, where riders are resting.  The 167-km (104-mi) flat stage will take the cyclists around a loop to the west, followed by a stretch to the south, and then west again.  There are several little climbs, but nothing like what cyclists will face the next day in Stage 12.  The stage finishes in Toulouse, which is where Stage 12 commences.

What makes tomorrow's stage so interesting is that team strategies will, like they often do, dictate the pace of the race.  Will the stage be short enough that several riders will break away and try to get a stage win?  Will Stage 12's mountain climbs worry those competing for the general classification enough that they'll ride Stage 11 at a leisurely pace?  We certainly don't know the teams' strategies!  Our model has the stage at a fairly fast pace.

• Stage 12:  3h 39' 54" (prediction)

Stage 7 so crushed me that I'm worried that I'll be watching a stage and wondering why the cyclists aren't doing anything more than looking at the scenery.  And then thoughts of Stage 3 enter my mind, which makes me worried about watching a stage with my jaw agape at just how fast the riders are going.  I'll take the second scenario because I like watching fast racing.  The physics is easy.  Anticipating what teams choose to do is much more difficult.  I can't wait to see the Tour de France back in action tomorrow!