Brilliant Ride Wins Stage 15 for Simon Yates!

This year's elite climbers are definitely outperforming our model.  They are outputting more power than they did last year.  Simon Yates rode with great form and rode with aggression on the final climb.  I'll start with the screen capture I got when Yates crossed the finish line (click on image for a larger view).

But that's not when I jumped out of my office chair.  Yates and Simon Geschke were leading the race up the final climb when, with about 8.7 km left in the stage, Yates attacked with passion (click on image for a larger view).

You can see Yates near the motorcycle and Geschke, who finished 25th today, permanently dropped.  There was so much attacking and cracking on the final climb that Yates kept up a torrid pace.  Julian Alaphilippe, who climbed without help from teammates and came in 11th today, lost time on his yellow-Jersey lead.  Thibaut Pinot came in second today and jumped up to fourth in the general classification, just 01' 50" behind Alaphilippe.

Descent racing was spectacular.  Speeds were high, despite mist making visibility tough for the cyclists (click on image for a larger view).

Pace was fast today and I knew we'd be slow with our prediction.  We needed more than 4% more power on our model cyclist; 42 riders (out of 164, or 25.6%) beat our predicted time today.

• Stage 15:  4h 47' 04" (actual), 5h 03' 05" (prediction), 16' 01" slow (5.58% error)

I hope we can cut that error in half when the riders get to the Alps.  Yates's average speed on his second stage win in the year's Tour de France is given below.

• Stage 15:  10.74 m/s (38.67 kph or 24.03 mph)

That is truly an impressive average speed on a stage like today's stage.  That maximum anticipated average speed by the Tour de France organizers was 37 kph.  The athletes are clearly outperforming exceptions on many fronts.  It's impressive to watch!

Tomorrow is the second and last rest day.  Cyclists will rest in Nîmes, which is nearly on the southern coast with the Mediterranean Sea.  They'll need to rest because after tomorrow, they'll have a flat stage and then a hilly stage before three brutal mountain stages in the Alps.  Those three stages have four Hors catégorie climbs in them, compared to just one they endured in the Pyrenees.  The race will surely be won in the Alps.  I'll be back tomorrow with our Stage 16 prediction.