Trentin Blasts his way to Stage Win!

Matteo Trentin broke off the lead group before the final climb and powered his way to the stage win.  The leaders raced at a scorching pace today.  I knew the general classification leaders would hold back today, but we ended up modeling the peloton's pace, not the winner's pace.  I'm simply amazed by the power output from today's elite cyclists.  Before getting to our prediction, check out Trentin crossing the finish line all alone (click on image for a larger view).

Okay, now for the comparison.

• Stage 17:  4h 21' 36" (actual), 4h 42' 42" (prediction), 21' 06' slow (8.07% error)

What's bizarre about what our model did today is that it nearly predicted the peloton's arrival to zero error.  The peloton came in 20' 10" after Trentin.  In other words, our model missed the peloton's time by just 54".  But we want to be able to model the winner, not the peloton!

Despite our model being slow today, it was great watching Trentin's ride.  Below is the moment when today's stage was won (click on image for a larger view).

I got that screen capture when Trentin broke off from the lead group and took a peek back to see if anyone was chasing him.  He accelerated past 60 kph (37 mph) to get in front.  The race was over at that point.  Check out Trentin's average speed.

• Stage 17:  12.74 m/s (45.87 kph or 28.50 mph)

The winning cyclist was once again about 2 kph faster than what the Tour de France organizers estimated for the top speed of the day.

The Tour de France will be decided over the next three stages in the Alps.  Tomorrow's Stage 18 will be something to watch!  Commencing in the commune of Embrun, cyclists will ride 208 km (129 mi) mostly north to Volloire, which is almost to the border with Italy.  Riders will climb to the 2109-m (6919-ft) peak of Col de Vars before two facing two Hors catégorie climbs.  The first is to the 2360-m (7743-ft) peak of Col d'Izoard; the second is to the 2642-m (8668-ft) peak of Col du Galibier.  The descents off each mountain will lead to some blistering speeds.  I hope there are several riders coming off the final climb because that would make for a spectacular downhill sprint to the finish line.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 18:  5h 38' 19" (prediction)

The Tour de France has befuddled me a bit this year, sometimes in exciting ways.  Regardless of how our model performs tomorrow, I'm anxious to see the monster climbs in the Alps!