GREAT Sprint by Viviani in Stage 4!

I got to watch today's stage, and I wasn't disappointed.  Elia Viviani made Italy proud with a stupendous sprint in the last few meters to just take today's stage win.  Check out Viviani crossing the finish line (click on image for a larger view).

Viviani is on the right in blue, just ahead of Alexander Kristoff in the center in white and Peter Sagan on the left in green.  Viviani is 11 kg (24 lb) lighter than Kristoff and Sagan.  Did that help?  I don't know, but Viviani did a great job sneaking out of a slipstream near that wall on the right and charging toward the finish line at just the right time.

Now we come to our prediction.  It's wasn't great, but I'm fascinated nonetheless.  While watching the stage, there were comments about crosswinds and sluggish cycling.  I thus knew our prediction would be too fast as I watch the race unfold.  But it turns out that we had yesterday's stage and today's stage exactly backwards.  The slower pace we expected in yesterday's stage showed up today.  The high speed we thought would pervade today's stage was on display yesterday.  We missed today's stage by the exact same time that we missed yesterday's stage, but in the opposite direction!

• Stage 04:  5h 09' 20" (actual), 4h 42' 50" (prediction), 26' 30" fast (-8.57% error)

What's funny is that we have exactly matched the sum of yesterday's winning time and today's winning time, but that's little consolation for two less-than-stellar predictions.  Viviani's average speed is given below.

• Stage 04:  11.50 m/s (41.41 kph or 25.73 mph)

Tomorrow's Stage 5 is a 175.5-km (109.0-mi) hilly stage that begins in the commune of Saint-Dié-des-Vosges and ends in Colmar.  The stage has a couple of category-3 and a couple of category-2 climbs, but the finish looks to be very fast.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 05:  4h 13' 41" (prediction)

I hope we get back on track tomorrow!