27 July 2019

The Shark Takes Shortened Stage 20!

Vincenzo Nibali rode with gusto up to Val Thorens and held off his competitors in the final kilometer to win the penultimate stage of this year's Tour de France.  Check out Nibali after crossing the finish line (click on image for a larger view).
It was great watching the world's best on the final climb of this year's race.  The last two stages in the Alps got blasted by the weather, but there was still a lot of drama.  I wish I had a prediction to compare to today's result, but I simply didn't get a chance last night to analyze the new stage route.  Below is Nibali's winning time.
  • Stage 20:  1h 51' 53" (actual)
His average speed is given below.
  • Stage 20:  8.86 m/s (31.91 kph or 19.83 mph)
That average speed happens to be about 2 kph greater than the maximum estimated by the race organizers.  Cyclists were definitely outputting more power this year than the ones we've modeled in the past.

This will be an historic Tour de France as Egan Bernal will become Colombia's first general classification winner.  Oh, by the way, Bernal is just 22 years old.  This kid could dominate cycling for many years to come.  Last year's winner, Geraint Thomas, will finish second this year.  That gives Team Ineos (formerly Team Sky) the top two spots on the podium tomorrow.  Not only did the team do well without Chris Froome, they will have seven of the last eight Tour de France winners, including the last five in a row.  That's domination!  Dutch cyclist Steven Kruijswijk will finish third overall tomorrow.  Julian Alaphilippe, who stole the hearts of French cycling fans, will finish fifth.  What he did on Stage 3 and on the individual time trial in Stage 13 will never be forgotten.

Tomorrow's final Tour de France stage is mostly ceremonial, but the sprinters will go for the stage win as they near Paris.  The 128-km (79.5-mi) flat stage commences in Rambouillet and then takes riders northeast to the Champs-Élysées in Paris.  Our prediction is given below.
  • Stage 21:  3h 06' 05" (prediction)
I can't wait to see history get made tomorrow!

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