Caleb Ewan Gets Second Stage Win!

Caleb Ewan won his second Tour de France stage today after an exciting and controversial final sprint to a photo-finish.  The screen capture I obtained below is the best I could get from today's finish.

Ewan has the red helmet on in the middle of the image.  Yesterday's stage winner and wearer of the green jersey, Sam Bennett, is just to Ewan's right.  Wout van Aert is in yellow to Bennett's right.  He was vying for his third stage win of this year's Tour de France, but had to settle for third in today's stage.  And that's where controversy comes into the story.  Just three seconds from the finish line, Peter Sagan had barriers on his right and van Aert on his left.  Sagan elbowed and shouldered van Aert in an effort to get by van Aert.  The screen capture below is the best I could get when I watched the replay.

Sagan is on the far left in the image, shouldering van Aert.  Race officials relegated Sagan to the last rider with the peloton's time.  That will definitely hurt his chances to break his own record and finish the Tour de France with his eighth green jersey.  He would probably already have eight in a row if not for his actions that led to Mark Cavendish crashing at the end of Stage 4 in 2017, actions that resulted in Sagan being disqualified.

For all the high speed and drama of the stage's finish, the rest of the stage was quite slow and uneventful.  Below is how our predication fared.

• Stage 11:  4h 00' 01" (actual), 3h 39' 48" (prediction), 20' 13" fast (-8.42% error)

Another terrible prediction!  This has been a Tour de France unlike any I've modeled before.  There have always been two or three stages that we've missed wildly.  My model works on the idea that an elite cyclist will win the stage while performing at an elite level.  But this year, Stages 3, 5, 8, and 11 have more resembled fun rides through the French countryside than what I've seen in past years, which was cyclists breaking away from the peloton, having to be chased down, and keeping the peloton's speed high.  Stage 5 was nearly unwatchable because there were zero breakaways.  Zero.  I don't know if the global pandemic and the postponed start to the race have influenced this year's edition of the Tour de France.  Stage 7 was an example of cyclists going ballistic and outperforming my model, so the cyclists clearly have it in them to output more power.  That always happens once or twice a year.  I've simply not seen so many slow stages, and we're only halfway through the entire race!  Ewan's average speed is given below.

• Stage 11:  11.63 m/s (41.87 kph or 26.02 mph)

That's not terribly slow, though it is slower than what race organizers estimated as the slowest possible average speed.  I expected another 3 kph or 4 kph tacked onto that average speed.

Tomorrow's 218-km (135-mi) hilly Stage 12 is this year's longest stage.  Beginning in Chauvigny, riders will travel southeast to the tiny commune of Sarran with a population less than 300.  There will be well over 300 people there tomorrow!  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 12:  5h 21' 56" (prediction)

Two category-4 climbs, one category-3 climb, and a category-2 climb toward the end of the stage will greet riders.  None of those climbs is longer than 4.8 km (3.0 mi), so "hilly" is about right for the stage.  I want to see action during the first couple of hours.  If the winning time is close to six hours, my model's power output will have to be downgraded from "elite" to account for less aggressive team strategies.

Bennett Wins Stage 10 and Takes Green Jersey!

Sam Bennett just edged out his competition to claim the Stage 10 win.  On a gorgeous day in western France that saw the peloton set a scorching pace, Bennett barely nudged past Caleb Ewan, who was denied a second stage win in this year's Tour de France.

That was the best screen capture I could get.  Bennett is the one surging ahead in white while Ewan is doing all he can to shove his bike forward on the right.  Peter Sagan, on the left coming in third, will have to pass his green jersey to Bennett, a sight that all of Ireland will enjoy tomorrow.

It was great watching the peloton move through towns and around roundabouts at high speeds.  Look at the onscreen speedometer during the intermediate sprint.

As a recreational rider, I can't fathom going 65 kph (40 mph) on a bicycle.  I'm glad the cyclists didn't go too crazy with speeds because we had a good prediction today.

• Stage 10:  3h 35' 22" (actual), 3h 41' 08" (prediction), 05' 46" slow (2.68% error)

Bennett's average speed, which was essentially the average speed of 65 other riders who got the same stage time, is shown below.

• Stage 10:  13.04 m/s (46.94 kph or 29.17 mph)

That's pretty fast!  Elite cyclists are amazing athletes for sure.

Tomorrow's 167.5-km (104.1-mi) flat Stage 11 takes riders northeast from the west coast of France.  They begin near the beach in Châtelaillon-Plage and reach the finish line in Poitiers.  I hope that the cyclists enjoy great weather tomorrow and that the racing remains fast.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 11:  3h 39' 48" (prediction)

Barring crashes and other such disasters, tomorrow's middle stage of this year's Tour de France shouldn't see changes to the top rankings for the general classification.  Which sprinter will win the day?  I'm rooting for Peter Sagan to break through with a stage win tomorrow.

Stage 10 Prediction

Tour de France cyclists are resting today.  Tomorrow they will do some island hopping for Stage 10.  Beginning on the island of Île d'Oléron off the western coast of France, riders will loop to the south and then move north to the finish line on the island of Île de Ré.  See my crop of the map below from the Tour de France website.

I don't believe that the Tour de France has done such island hopping before.  Cyclists will enjoy wonderful weather with gorgeous views of the Atlantic along much of the stage.  There can't possibly be a flatter stage.  Minimum and maximum elevations are 1 m and 16 m, respectively.  Our prediction for the 168.5-km (104.7-mi) stage is given below.

• Stage 10:  3h 41' 08" (prediction)

Will we be much too fast as cyclists opt for a boring, no-breakaway effort as in Stage 5?  Will we be much too slow as cyclists go bananas like they did on Stage 7?  The fun is watching the race to see how well our model predicts reality.  I can't wait!

Roglič Wrests Yellow Jersey from Yates!

Postponing this year's Tour de France from July to late August and much of September because of the global pandemic has surely influence cycling this year.  On a much smaller scale, the postponement has influenced my ability to watch and study the race.  Classes at my university commenced on 12 August, which has meant that I've been unable to watch some stages live.  I've had to watch them on replay.

Besides altering my academic and research work, this year's Tour de France overlapped with my transition from quadragenarian to quinquagenarian, which happened during yesterday's Stage 8.  Today I've managed to watch replays of the last few kilometres of Stages 8 and 9 so that I could see the winners, get the winning times, and grab screen shots.  I'll have to watch longer stretches of those first two mountain stages tonight so that I might better understand what happened.

Stage 8 saw Nans Peters finishing alone and thrilling his home country of France.  He looks happy!

General classification battles were taking place behind Peters.  We were a bit fast on this stage.  Our prediction's comparison with reality and Peters's average speed are given below.

• Stage 08:  4h 02' 12" (actual), 3h 44' 26" (prediction), 17' 46" fast (-7.34% error)
• Stage 08:  9.70 m/s (34.93 kph or 21.70 mph)

Were cyclists holding back a little in anticipation of Stage 9?  Even the race organizers didn't think the average speed would be below 36 kph.  I'll have to watch the replay to see how slow the peloton looked early in the stage.

Stage 9 saw serious shakeup in the general classification as Primož Roglič of Slovenia took the yellow jersey from England's Adam Yates, who now sits in 8th place, 62 seconds behind Roglič.  Today was a red letter day for Slovenia because Tadej Pogačar, who won't be 22 years old until the 21st of this month, won the sprint to take Stage 9.  Check out Pogačar on the left just as he crossed the finish line today.

Racing speeds must have been up to something more normal today.  We did much better on today's stage compared to yesterday's stage.

• Stage 09:  3h 55' 17" (actual), 3h 51' 01" (prediction), 04' 16" fast (-1.81% error)
• Stage 09:  10.84 m/s (39.02 kph or 24.24 mph)

Tomorrow's rest day could have been on riders' minds as they pushed harder today than yesterday.  I like our Stage 9 prediction!  Look out for last year's winner, Egan Bernal, who now sits in second place in the general classification, just 21 seconds behind Roglič.

I will take advantage of tomorrow's rest day by watching replays of Stages 8 and 9 tonight, and then posting our Stage 10 prediction sometime tomorrow.

Van Aert Wins a BLISTERINGLY Fast Stage!

Wout van Aert won his second stage of this year's Tour de France today.  He may have finished just ahead of the sprinters today, but almost all of the cyclists set a torrid pace through the stage.  Crosswinds blew up the peloton with about a quarter of the stage left to ride.  The lead group continued the fast pace, but the second group lagged a bit.  As the sprinters approached the finish line, speeds of 64 kph (40 mph) were reached.  Check out the close finish.

Van Aert is in yellow, and he knew he had won about a metre before the finish line.  We had our worst prediction today.  Check it out.

• Stage 07:  3h 32" 03" (actual), 3h 57' 13" (prediction), 25' 10" slow (11.87% error)

Ouch!  Not even when Ben Hannas and I first began this area of research in 2003 would an error that large have been acceptable.  Look at va Aert's average speed.

• Stage 07:  13.20 m/s (47.54 kph or 29.54 mph)

I simply can't believe that average speed.  Even the Tour de France organizers put their upper limit at 45 kph on their time schedule.  I hope nobody was late getting to a spot to watch the race.  Cyclists would have been long gone if someone cut it too close.  As always, I'll have to look at this stage in much greater detail once the race is over.  Next year's model, like every year's model, will need some adjustment.

I will not be able to watch the next two stages as they happen.  I'll have to watch them on replay, hopefully Sunday night.  I'm anxious to watch Stages 8 and 9, both mountain stages in the Pyrenees.  But I'll be busy with other goodies this weekend.  I'm even pressed for time getting this blog post written and posted.  I regret that I'll have to skip my usual stage descriptions and just offer our predictions for the next two stages.

• Stage 08:  3h 44' 26" (prediction)
• Stage 09:  3h 51' 01" (prediction)

Speeds will obviously come down in the mountains, but if cyclists perform like they did yesterday and today, we'll be too slow.  I'm rooting for how we did on Stage 4!

Lutsenko DOMINATES Climb to Mont Aigoual!

I complained about yesterday's stage being boring.  No such complaint today!  Breakaways and attacks, riders cracking on climbs, and an inspirational ride by a cyclist from Kazakhstan all made for a thrilling sixth stage of this year's Tour de France.  Alexey Lutsenko was a joy to watch during the massive climb to end the stage.  He broke free from the breakaway group on the climb, and he never looked back.  Spaniard Jesús Herrada made a gallant effort to catch Lutsenko, but finished with a very respectable second place.  Check out Lutsenko crossing the finish line.

Lutsenko finished nearly a minute ahead of Herrada.  Early on, I could tell that our model would be slow today.  The breakaway group kept the peloton's speed up.  Cyclists were positively flying at times, and climbers like Lutsenko, Herrada, the young and bold Neilson Powless, and Greg Van Avermaet were setting a torrid pace on the final climb.  Julian Alaphilippe, surely smarting from yesterday's food gaffe that cost him the yellow jersey, kicked hard in the final half kilometre to finish in fifth place.  Check out how our prediction did.

• Stage 06:  4h 32' 34" (actual), 4h 51' 26" (prediction), 18' 52" slow (6.92% error)

Our error was a little worse than yesterday's error, but I'm not nearly as bothered as I was yesterday.  Yesterday's stage looked like a lot of riders simply trying to make it to the end without injury or shuffling of the general classification.  Today's stage look like the best of the best in the saddle racing their butts off.  Our model needed about 15% more power to match today's time.  Check out Lutsenko's average speed.

• Stage 06:  11.68 m/s (42.04 kph or 26.13 mph)

For a stage like today's, that's a fast speed!  Well done, Alexey Lutsenko!

A couple of category-3 climbs appear in tomorrow's 168-km (104-mi) Stage 7, although the stage is classified as flat.  The last half of the stage is mostly downhill.  Cyclists will start in the French commune of Millau and then head southwest to the commune of Lavaur.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 07:  3h 57' 13" (prediction)

Will the cyclists hold back like yesterday or let it loose like today?  I would rather miss being too slow than too fast because at least I'll get to watch some great racing!

Van Aert Takes Stage 5!

Belgian Wout van Aert dominated the final sprint to win today's fifth stage of the Tour de France.  Look at the great timing I had in grabbing a screen capture of the finish.

That's Dutchman Cees Bol just a couple of centimetres behind van Aert.  What a finish!  Cyclists were reaching speeds of 60 kph (37 mph) in the final hundred metres.  For all that late speed, the rest of the race was slow.  Check out how our prediction fared.

• Stage 05:  4h 21' 22" (actual), 4h 05' 44" (prediction), 15' 38" fast (-5.98% error)

Van Aert's average speed is given below.

• Stage 05:  11.67 m/s (42.01 kph or 26.10 mph)

Our prediction wasn't as bad as the one we offered for Stage 3, but I want our predictions to be as good as what we offered for yesterday's stage.  I want to be under 1% error!  This desire allows me to make a brief aside.  Science doesn't care at all what I desire, believe, think, or yearn for.  If I create a scientific model of something in the natural world, like a cycling race, I want the best data and most accurate application of the laws of physics.  For something as complicated as the Tour de France, my students and I can't possibly have enough information to offer a perfect prediction for every stage.  Team strategies, weather, fan disruptions, crashes, call-of-nature breaks, eating, and other such factors are all unknown to us.  And that makes for part of the fun.  If a stage has lots of rain and cycling is slow, I don't mind if our model's prediction is too fast.  I also want to know if we have something modeled poorly, like cyclist power output or aerodynamic drag.

Having written all that, I have ask the following question.  Were Stages 3 and 5 not absolutely BORING until the final sprint?  I don't ask that question as an indirect way of offering an excuse for a prediction with nearly 6% error.  I ask it because the entire stage, which was mostly downhill, lacked attacking cyclists.  Where were the daring riders who dashed ahead in a breakaway, only to cause angst in other teams, who would then feel compelled to chase the attackers?  On the best athletic day of my life I couldn't do what those elite cyclists do.  But as a fan, I want to see more action and fewer slow-moving pelotons.

Tomorrow's 191-km (119-mi) Stage 6 takes riders southwest from Le Teil nearly to the peak of Mont Aigoual.  The first 155 km of the stage is flat as can be.  The final 36 km (22 mi) of the stage, however, will see the cyclists increase their elevation by 1336 m (4383 ft).  That will be some brutal climbing!  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 06:  4h 51' 26" (prediction)

What I definitely don't want to see tomorrow is a slow-moving peloton on the flat part and then the climbers taking over at the end.  I want to see more action on the flat part.  Let's see some breakaways!

Roglič Puts Us Under 1%!

Primož Roglič simply owned the final 200 m of today's fourth stage of the Tour de France.  He put himself in great position for the final sprint after great pacing in the stage.  The image below shows Roglič just after he crossed the finish line.

What a gorgeous day for cycling!  Our model was back on track today after cyclists opted for a leisurely bike ride yesterday.  Check out how we did.

• Stage 04:  4h 07' 47" (actual), 4h 09' 28" (prediction), 01' 41" slow (0.68% error)

Now that's more like it!  From the initial pace of the peloton to the final category-1 climb, our model matched today's cycling quite well.  I always root for fast racing, but a tiny part of me wanted the cyclists to slow a bit in the final kilometre.  I was yearning for perfection!

Roglič's average speed is given below.

• Stage 04:  10.80 m/s (38.86 kph or 24.15 mph)

That wasn't too shabby on a mostly uphill stage.  Roglič leaped all the way up to third in the general classification, just 7 s behind Julian Alaphilippe.

Riders begin tomorrow's 183-km (114-mi) flat stage in the commune of Gap.  They head west to the finish line in the commune of Privas.  In contrast to today's stage, tomorrow's stage is mostly downhill.  There are a couple of short category-4 climbs in the latter half of the stage, but racing has a chance to be fast tomorrow.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 05:  4h 05' 44" (prediction)

Can we get under 1% error again?  I hope so!

The Pocket Rocket Wins a SLOW Stage!

Australia's Caleb Ewan out-sprinted Sam Bennett to the finish line to win today's third stage of the Tour de France.  The screen capture I got below shows just how narrow Ewan's win was today.

I was teaching all morning and missed most of the stage.  I had to watch good chunks of the replay later in the day.  What was going on today?!?  The peloton moved like molasses in sand!  Were cyclists tired after such an early trek into the Alps in yesterday's stage?  Were they saving energy for later stages?  I don't know the answer, but as I watched the replay, I kept thinking to myself, "We are going to be much too fast today!"  Look at how our prediction fared.

• Stage 03:  5h 17' 42" (actual), 4h 50' 26" (prediction), 27' 16" fast (-8.58% error)

Yeesh.  Ewan's average speed is even more telling.

• Stage 03:  10.39 m/s (37.39 kph or 23.24 mph)

Even the Tour de France organizers would think that average speed to be quite low.  The organizers' time schedule estimated average speeds would have been in the range 38 kph - 42 kph.  Whatever the reason, our model was too fast!

Tomorrow's 160.5-km (99.7-mi) medium mountain Stage 4 picks up in Sisteron and takes riders north to the ski resort at Orcières-Merlette in the Alps.  Cyclists will be biking mostly uphill during the stage, and they'll contend with a 7.1-km (4.4-mi) category-1 climb to finish the stage.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 04:  4h 09' 28" (prediction)

Will cyclists repeat today's slow pace or will the climbers force the action to be much faster?  It will be fun to watch!

Alaphilippe Puts France in Yellow!

Just as he did last in stage 3 of last year's Tour de France, Frenchman Julian Alaphilippe grabbed the yellow jersey early in this year's race.  On a positively gorgeous day in the Alps and in Nice, Alaphilippe held on in the final sprint as the peloton was closing in.  Check out his narrow win over Swiss cyclist, Marc Hirschi, in the screen capture I grabbed.

Our prediction was once again quite good!  See the comparison below.

• Stage 02:  4h 55' 27" (actual), 4h 47' 38" (prediction), 07' 49" fast (-2.65% error)

The two big climbs were grueling.  After four decades of not having mountain climbs this early in the race, I'm definitely happy with our prediction!

Check out Alaphilippe's average speed below.

• Stage 02:  10.49 m/s (37.77 kph or 23.47 mph)

Alaphilippe was in yellow for 14 stages last year.  How many stages will see him in yellow this year?  The French will be rooting for him to finish the entire race in yellow!

Tomorrow' third stage is classified as flat, but cyclists will do some climbing, including three category-3 climbs and a short category-4 climb.  The 198-km (123-mi) stage takes riders from Nice northwest to the commune of Sisteron.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 03:  4h 50' 26" (prediction)

I hope we can stay under 3% error!

Rain, Crashes, and a Great Sprint!

Setting aside the pandemic, the first stage of this year's Tour de France was far from ideal.  Rain made for slick roads.  Several crashes happened, and some were tough to watch.  Cyclists had to neutralize at one point.  The elite general classification contenders appeared to be protected by their teams as racing conditions got more dangerous.  All of the problems riders faced on the day did not prevent a great sprint to the finish.  Teams were able to get their sprinters in position as the peloton got into the beautiful city of Nice.  I managed to get the screen capture below just as the powerful Norwegian sprinter Alexander Kristoff crossed the finish line.

You can see Kristoff finishing just ahead of the Danish cyclist, Mads Pedersen.

The rain and crashes had me thinking our prediction would be much too fast.  But the teams' desires to get sprinters in position made for fast racing in Nice.  Below is Kristoff's winning time and a comparison with our prediction.

• Stage 01:  3h 46' 23" (actual), 3h 41' 53" (prediction), 04' 30" fast (-1.99% error)

I'll definitely take an error just under 2% on a stage like today's, and in the bizarre environment of this year's postponed race.  Check out Kristoff's average speed below.

• Stage 01:  11.48 m/s (41.35 kph or 25.69 mph)

Tomorrow's second stage will be the first foray into the mountains so early in the Tour de France in four decades.  Cyclists will once again begin and end in Nice with a loop to the north, but unlike today, tomorrow's stage will have them climbing in the Alps.  Two big category-1 climbs will dominate the first half of the 186-km (116-mi) medium mountain stage, the second of which has riders crossing the 1607-km (5272-ft) peak of Col de Turini.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 02:  4h 47' 38" (prediction)

How will sprinters fare in the mile-high air?  Will today's crash victims recover well enough to compete strongly tomorrow?  Tomorrow's stage will surely influence the general classification battle.  It will be fun to watch!

Tour de France -- 2020 Style

I doubt too many people will remember 2020 as their favorite year.  The global pandemic has taken lives and altered what most people think of as a "normal" life.  The sports world has been rocked by the pandemic, too.  From March Madness being canceled to my Vandy baseball team being denied a chance to repeat as champs to the Indy 500 being run in August, nothing about sports feels normal.

The 2020 Tour de France had to be postponed from its normal hold on the month of July to a late August start.  This year's Tour de France will take place before the Giro d'Italia.  How will cyclists perform in the 107th Tour de France in such a crazy year?  How will redesigned training schedules and what could only be strained personal lives affect what we cycling fans see once racing commences?  There won't likely be fake fans as in baseball, but we may not see the large crowds we are used to seeing on the big climbs and at finish lines.

I'm anxious to see how my research group's model performs this year.  With so much uncertainty surrounding the months that led to this day before the Tour de France begins, it's impossible to predict how well our model will do this year.  Will cyclists be rested and faster than usual?  Will they be so unaccustomed to the late August start that racing will be slow?  I certainly don't know.  But I'm excited to watch some elite cycling!

Stage 1 begins tomorrow in the southeastern French coastal city of Nice.  The 156-km (96.9-mi) stage has riders looping up north before returning to Nice for the flat sprint to the finish.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 01:  3h 41' 53" (prediction)

Noah Baumgartner, a third-year physics major here at the University of Lynchburg, joins me again this year in modeling the Tour de France.  We don't have a "pandemic" parameter for our computer model!  I only hope that once the stage begins, the cyclists once again show us what the best of the best can do.

Half Century after the Birth of a Legend

The global pandemic that has us all isolated, stuck indoors, social distanced, and quarantined makes for harrowing and surreal times.  My guess is that most of us vacillate between trepidation and a desire to not think about what's happening.  One person's efforts at humor to lighten moods might be offensive to another person.  Each of us copes in our own way.  What I hope emerges from this year is the need to listen to scientists and other experts.  Gut feelings are not reliable means of discerning truth.  Data and evidence with sound reasoning are much more important than gut feelings.  Science is the best tool we have for understanding our world.  And science doesn't give a damn what you or I believe.  Keeping schools open long enough to reach spring break and lying to the public in hopes that financial markets will do a tad better were colossal mistakes.  Will we learn from this year?  I honestly don't know.

Setting aside current events for a moment, I wish to remind you of a birth that took place 50 years ago today.  I had it on my calendar to write about the birth of Secretariat, and then I saw that Wikipedia has Secretariat as its featured article today!  I was born in 1970, about half a year after Secretariat.  I'll write a few words of my own on the topic.

I wasn't a huge horse racing fan when I was growing up in West Virginia.  But I definitely knew the name Secretariat.  The name evoked images of perfection, even though Secretariat didn't win all of his races.  Like so many sports fans who only pay attention to horse racing in the spring, my familiarity with the major races was and is confined to the Triple Crown races.  I usually watched the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes.  But I confess that if the same horse didn't win both of those races, I rarely tuned in to watch the Belmont Stakes.  There was one indelible fact that I knew about horse racing in my youth.  The race record at each of the Triple Crown locations was set by Secretariat -- and those records stand today.

If you want to relive some great sports history, try the spring of 1973.  Secretariat became the most famous horse in my lifetime during that spring.  For all the troubles in the country in 1973, from Vietnam to Watergate, an equine hero emerged.  Click here to watch Secretariat set the record in the Kentucky Derby -- crossing the line in just under two minutes.  Then click here to watch Secretariat set the record in the Preakness Stakes.  And finally, click here for the race that will bring tears of amazement to your eyes -- Secretariat's famous 31-link victory in the Belmont Stakes.  The average speeds in those three races were 37.69 mph (60.65 kph), 37.83 mph (60.88), and 37.50 mph (60.35 kph).  Now those are some fast speeds!

Stay at home if possible -- and relive the great sports moments given to us by an extraordinary horse born 50 years ago today.

Interview with Brian Keating

I was recently interviewed by Brian Keating.  We had a great chat!  We discussed my new book, and I did my best to sell the wonderful attributes of my school, the University of Lynchburg.  Click here or below to hear the half-hour-long interview.

If you're listening to the scientists -- as you should! -- and keeping yourself away from people, enjoy the above half hour.  And you might even hear about a book worth getting that can help pass a few more hours at home!

SciAni, based in the UK, created another great animation for my work, this time focusing on my new book, The Physics of Krav Maga.  The 3D element in the middle of the video is wonderful!

My New Book and Intuitive Physics

My new book, The Physics of Krav Maga, came out on 19 November 2019.  My publisher, Johns Hopkins University Press, invited me to write a blog post to coincide with my book's release.  I decided to write on the topic of "intuitive physics" that I used as a basis for beginning my book's physics discussions.  There are no equations in my book.  I opted for conceptual descriptions and plenty of photos, figures, and graphs.  There are links in the book to movies of the various moves I discuss.  Click here to read my blog post, or just click on the image of my book's cover below.

In the interest of shameless book promotion, what could be a better stocking stuffer than a stocking stuffer with attitude?!?

Sumo Glory in 5.5 Seconds!

Ever since I began researching Chapter 9 of my first book, I have been fascinated by the sport of sumo.  I discussed the great Taihō Kōki in that chapter while discussing lovely physics topics like linear momentum.  Though Taihō died three years after my book was published, I still check in on sumo when I can.  I'm glad I watched the final match of the Autumn Grand Sumo Tournament that took place in Tokyo on 22 September (click here for an article in English).  Several top-ranked rikishi, including two yokozuna, were absent from the final of the top division.  But that didn't stop Mitakeumi Hisashi from attaining sumo glory after defeating Takakeishō Mitsunobu in just 5.5 seconds.

Check out the start of the match (click on image for a larger view).

The ring (dohyō) has a diameter of 4.55 m (14.9 ft).  The rikishi are behind the starting lines (shikiri-sen), which are 70 cm (2.3 ft) apart.  The referee (gyōji) is ready for the start of the action, which happens only by mutual consent of the rikishi.  Mitakeumi with a mass of 177 kg (a weight of 390 lb) is on the left and Takakeishō with a mass of 169 kg (a weight of 373 lb) is on the right.  The two rikishi combined for a mass of 346 kg (a weight of 763 lb), which is the weight of a good-sized grand piano or over a quarter of the weight of my Honda Civic.  A lot of mass was about to collide!

The initial charge (tachi-ai) saw Takakeishō opting to stay low and Mitakeumi looking to defend high (click on image for a larger view).

You can see Mitakeumi's hands are out, preparing to keep Takakeishō from getting too low.  Check out the initial collision (click on image for a larger view).

Even though rikishi seldom are able to get to a speed of more than 2 m/s (4.5 mph) or so due to the short distance they travel prior to collision, the combined kinetic energy can be large.  I calculated a combined kinetic energy at the collision to be about 850 J.  If that amount of energy could be turned into work, I could be lifted about a meter off the ground!  A baseball would have to be moving 108 m/s (242 mph) to have that much kinetic energy!  But the only work that kinetic energy was turned into was the work needed to depress and move fat around.  If ever there was an inelastic collision, it's what you see in the above image.  Most of that kinetic energy was gone after the collision.  Before you think of 850 J as being a huge amount of energy, and nobody wants to be hit by a baseball moving over 100 m/s, consider that 850 J is the same amount of energy as 0.2 Calories.  That's only 10% of a Tic Tac!  The next time you pop a single Tic Tac in your mouth, think about how much chemical energy is stored in food.

Okay, back to the action.  Mitakeumi's opening strategy worked; he kept Takakeishō from staying low (click on image for a larger view).

Note that the center of mass of the two rikishi hasn't moved much from the initial collision.  Because both rikishi were pushing back on the floor with roughly the same force, the floor pushed back on them with the same force (Newton's Third Law).  With those external forces nearly canceling, the system of the two rikishi felt no net, external force.  That meant that the system's linear momentum was conserved during the collision.  That's why the center of mass didn't move much after the initial collision.  But now we come to the key point in the action where Mitakeumi took advantage of physics and made sure the system of the two rikishi had a net, external force (click on image for a larger view).

You can see Mitakeumi on the left driving forward while Takakeishō got caught standing still.  The above image is just 1.3 s after the initial charge.  Because Mitakeumi has a little speed to the right, the system linear momentum isn't zero as it was during the initial hit.  The system linear momentum is to the right, which means the two rikishi will likely move to the right after the next big collision.  A split second later and Takakeishō is still stuck (click on image for a larger view).

Takakeishō is essentially at rest in the above instant, and Mitakeumi is heading toward victory.  Check out the next collision (click on image for a larger view).

The system linear momentum is to the right!  Mitakeumi is charging and you can see that Takakeishō is reeling by the fact that his left foot has come off the ground.  Mitakeumi's next big step with his left leg drove Takakeishō right where Mitakeumi wanted him (click on image for a larger view).

Takakeishō doesn't have much room to back up, which was Mitakeumi's intended goal.  Mitakeumi then opted for stability and went low (click on image for a larger view).

By keeping low, Mitakeumi avoided Takakeishō getting the advantage by pushing off the raised ring and offsetting Mitakeumi's balance.  In the image below, you see Mitakeumi low and ready to deliver the winning punishment (click on image for a larger view).

When Mitakeumi next drove into Takakeishō, Mitakeumi had his center of mass dropped and his right leg back for added stability (click on image for a larger view).

You can see that Takakeishō had his feet against the raised ring.  That was his last effort to keep from being pushed out of the ring.  Takakeishō tried to sneak out to his right, but the position Mitakeumi had achieved in the above image prevented that from happening (click on image for a larger view).

All that remained of the match was great technique, strength, and using physics in the way it's supposed to be used.  Mitakeumi next helped with leverage by grabbing Takakeishō's mawashi (click on image for a larger view).

You can just spot Mitakeumi's right hand under Takakeishō's mawashi.  And look at the wonderful stance Mitakeumi had!  His wide base with left foot slightly back prevented Takakeishō from driving off the raised ring.  Now comes the lift (click on image for a larger view).

Mitakeumi had Takakeishō's mawashi fulled gripped with both hands, and Mitakeumi was prepared to lift and push (click on image for a larger view).

Mitakeumi had raised himself and Takakeishō up and driven Takakeishō almost out of the ring.  A lot of chanko-nabe has to be consumed to get that massive and strong!  Takakeishō was done for at this point.  A look from behind shows the precarious situation Takakeishō was in (click on image for a larger view).

Takakeishō was out a split second later (click on image for a larger view).

You can see on Takakeishō's face what second place looks like.  The above image is just 5.5 s after the initial charge began.  That's all the time Mitakeumi needed to take full advantage of the laws of physics and secure a tournament win.  He got a pretty nice trophy, too (click on image for a larger view).

He can put a lot of Asahi Super Dry in that thing!

Albert Pujols and Lifetime 0.300 Hitter

With the Astros win over the Rays last night, the two American League heavyweights will be squaring off against each other for the pennant.  Game 1 of the Astros/Yankees series begins on Saturday.  Both of the National League heavyweights, the Braves and Dodgers, were ousted from the playoffs by the Cardinals and Nationals, respectively.  The Cardinals host the Nationals this evening in the first game for the National League pennant.  The silliness of partially deciding the champion a 162-game Major League Baseball season with a single game in the wild-card round and a best-of-five in the division-series round will have to be discussed in a future blog post.  The topic of this blog post is Albert Pujols.

(image credit:  https://www.flickr.com/photos/dherholz/246301261/)

Pujols hasn't played for the Cards since helping them win the 2011 World Series.  His Los Angeles Angles finished this past season 35 games behind the Astros.  But his old team being in the hunt for this year's World Series title got me thinking about Pujols.  His 11 seasons in St. Louis were not only some of the best seasons any player has had to open a career, they punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame.  He finished top-5 in MVP voting in 10 of those 11 seasons (and 9th in his "off" year!), winning the award three times.  Two of his second-place MVP finishes were to Barry Bonds (make of that what you will).  His career numbers after those 11 seasons in St. Louis already had him ranked among the game's best.  He had over 2000 hits, nearly 1300 runs, nearly 450 home runs, nearly 1000 walks, over 1300 RBI, an OBP of 0.420, a SLG of 0.617, and a batting average of 0.328.

We've known for many years now that batting average isn't nearly as valuable a statistic as, say, on-base percentage or slugging percentage.  But batting average still resonates with many baseball fans, even scientists like me (who should know better!).  I'm 49 years old and I have vivid memories of collecting baseball cards when I was very young.  The stats on the backs of those cards became numbers that my brain couldn't shake.  Batting titles, 200 hits in a season, getting over 0.300 batting average, and sluggers who could top 100 RBI became the baseball benchmarks of my youth.  Finishing one's time in baseball as a "lifetime 0.300 hitter" had the cachet of a great career.  When Pujols left the Cards after the 2011 season with his 0.328 lifetime batting average, that number caused names to pop up in my head at the time.  I was lucky enough to have watched Rod Carew and Wade Boggs on television during their prime years.  Those two names represent a combined 12 American League batting titles, two players who each topped 3000 career hits, and two players who have lifetime 0.328 batting averages.  You know who else hit 0.328 for his career?  Honus Wagner.  Setting aside disputes over 9 hits and 10 at-bats in his career, Wagner's name is known to any baseball fan, and certainly to anyone who collects baseball cards.  He was in the inaugural Hall of Fame class and regarded by many as the greatest shortstop, though comparing dead-ball-era players to the athletes of today is next to impossible.  The point I'm making here is that when Pujols left the Cards after their championship season in 2011, he had the career average of great hitters like Carew, Boggs, and Wagner.  But his power numbers blew those greats away.  Those of us who watched Pujols in his prime were privileged to see one of baseball's elites.

Despite finishing 5th in the 2011 MVP race, Pujols had his worst year with the Cards.  Though he had a year that essentially every baseball player would love to have, it wasn't the elite year that Pujols was used to in his first decade in the league.  It was the first year that he didn't top 100 RBI (he had 99) or hit over 0.300 (he finished at 0.299).  His OBP and SLG were down, and he continued his penchant for grounding into double plays, leading the majors with 29.  He was nearly 32 years old and, if he was like most players throughout baseball's history, was getting ready to enter the decline phase of his career.  Maybe the Cardinals could see all that, though they did offer him a lot of money to come back.  Pujols was traded to the Angels prior to the start of the 2012 season.  The Angels signed Pujols to a 10-year deal worth approximately $254 million, which was about $44 million more than what the Cards were willing to pay.  Much has been written about how financially crazy that was for the Angels, though hindsight does aid in the complaining about the contract.

The Angels surely thought they could get four or five seasons of Pujols nearly at the level of his best seasons with the Cards.  He walloped 50 doubles and 30 home runs in his first season with the Angels.  But the 0.285 batting average he had that first year with the Angels was, by far, his best batting average season with the Angels.  He made just one All-Star team in the past 8 seasons as an Angel, and that was in 2015 when he finished the year with 40 home runs.  But as impressive as that was, he hit just 0.244 with a paltry 0.307 OBP.  Over the past 3 seasons, Pujols collectively hit less than 0.245, had an OBP under 0.300, and had a -1.0 WAR.  That last number is almost hard to believe for a player like Albert Pujols.

Though he's hit over 200 home runs in his 8 seasons with the Angels, no one can argue that Albert Pujols has been anything close to the player he was for the Cardinals.  He did finish the 2019 season, his 19th in the big leagues, with a career batting average of 0.300, which means his years with the Angels knocked 0.028 off his career batting average.  But though the record books have Pujols as a 0.300 hitter, that's rounded.  He actually has a 0.2996 career batting average.  If he retired today, Pujols would indeed be able to wear the "lifetime 0.300 hitter" moniker.  But there is a trace of Ted Williams in me that wants to see Pujols come back for his 20th season and get his lifetime average over the exact 0.300 number.  Albert Pujols has come to the plate 12231 times in his career.  He needed just five outs he made in his career to have been hits for his lifetime average to be over the 0.300 line.  Five outs.  In 19 years.  Fans of Pujols can surely recall a couple of great defensive plays made against him, or a couple of blown umpire calls that cost him hits.

What would you do?  If you were Pujols and about to turn 40, would you retire and have the magic 0.300 in the record books?  Would you bust your tail over the off-season, get in the best shape of your life, and come back with a mission to get over .300?  Pujols hasn't reached 500 at bats in the previous two seasons, but let's give him exactly 500 at bats for the 2020 season.  Pujols would need 155 hits in those 500 at bats to have a lifetime average of 0.30008 (154 hits would have him at 0.299991).  Getting 155 hits in 500 at bats means Pujols would have to hit 0.310 next year, something he's not done since 2010, i.e. half his career ago.  So that seems very unlikely.  But what if Pujols got hot to start the season?  He could go 6 for 6 and sneak over the 0.300 line (0.300009 to be closer to exact).  Now that would be almost like Ted Williams going 6 for 8 in the double header to end the 1941 season and finish comfortably over 0.400.  Starting the season 6 for 6 is unlikely for Pujols, but not nearly as improbable as hitting 0.310 over the course of a full season.

So, again, what would you do?  The elephant in the room, of course, is what Pujols will earn next year.  Pujols has already made over $285 million in his baseball career (not including endorsements!).  He's set to earn $29 million next season, and then $30 million the following season.  He'll make over $179k per game next season, which is nearly $20k per inning (assuming each game has 9 innings, which won't be true).  He could be the DH and only play four or five innings per game.  Just a select few people can even comprehend the money that Pujols could make next year.  If Pujols comes back and plays one game, he'll earn more from that one game than I will in all of 2020.  So I would do what I suspect most everyone else would do, and that's come back and earn an incredible salary doing something that I love to do.  Even if he plays the next two seasons, and he plays well below his former self, he'll still finish his career with a first-ballot Hall of Fame ticket.  He'll also give fans like me, who have never seen Pujols play in person, the chance to cross off one item on our bucket lists.  I'm rooting for Albert Pujols to come back strong next season -- and hit at least 0.310!