Australia's Caleb Ewan out-sprinted Sam Bennett to the finish line to win today's third stage of the Tour de France. The screen capture I got below shows just how narrow Ewan's win was today.
I was teaching all morning and missed most of the stage. I had to watch good chunks of the replay later in the day. What was going on today?!? The peloton moved like molasses in sand! Were cyclists tired after such an early trek into the Alps in yesterday's stage? Were they saving energy for later stages? I don't know the answer, but as I watched the replay, I kept thinking to myself, "We are going to be much too fast today!" Look at how our prediction fared.
- Stage 03: 5h 17' 42" (actual), 4h 50' 26" (prediction), 27' 16" fast (-8.58% error)
Yeesh. Ewan's average speed is even more telling.
- Stage 03: 10.39 m/s (37.39 kph or 23.24 mph)
Even the Tour de France organizers would think that average speed to be quite low. The organizers' time schedule estimated average speeds would have been in the range 38 kph - 42 kph. Whatever the reason, our model was too fast!
Tomorrow's 160.5-km (99.7-mi) medium mountain Stage 4 picks up in Sisteron and takes riders north to the ski resort at Orcières-Merlette in the Alps. Cyclists will be biking mostly uphill during the stage, and they'll contend with a 7.1-km (4.4-mi) category-1 climb to finish the stage. Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 04: 4h 09' 28" (prediction)
Will cyclists repeat today's slow pace or will the climbers force the action to be much faster? It will be fun to watch!
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