Setting aside the pandemic, the first stage of this year's Tour de France was far from ideal. Rain made for slick roads. Several crashes happened, and some were tough to watch. Cyclists had to neutralize at one point. The elite general classification contenders appeared to be protected by their teams as racing conditions got more dangerous. All of the problems riders faced on the day did not prevent a great sprint to the finish. Teams were able to get their sprinters in position as the peloton got into the beautiful city of Nice. I managed to get the screen capture below just as the powerful Norwegian sprinter Alexander Kristoff crossed the finish line.
You can see Kristoff finishing just ahead of the Danish cyclist, Mads Pedersen.
The rain and crashes had me thinking our prediction would be much too fast. But the teams' desires to get sprinters in position made for fast racing in Nice. Below is Kristoff's winning time and a comparison with our prediction.
- Stage 01: 3h 46' 23" (actual), 3h 41' 53" (prediction), 04' 30" fast (-1.99% error)
I'll definitely take an error just under 2% on a stage like today's, and in the bizarre environment of this year's postponed race. Check out Kristoff's average speed below.
- Stage 01: 11.48 m/s (41.35 kph or 25.69 mph)
Tomorrow's second stage will be the first foray into the mountains so early in the Tour de France in four decades. Cyclists will once again begin and end in Nice with a loop to the north, but unlike today, tomorrow's stage will have them climbing in the Alps. Two big category-1 climbs will dominate the first half of the 186-km (116-mi) medium mountain stage, the second of which has riders crossing the 1607-km (5272-ft) peak of Col de Turini. Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 02: 4h 47' 38" (prediction)
How will sprinters fare in the mile-high air? Will today's crash victims recover well enough to compete strongly tomorrow? Tomorrow's stage will surely influence the general classification battle. It will be fun to watch!
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