07 July 2022

Pogačar Back in Yellow and Disastrous Modeling!

Tadej Pogačar showed why he is the man to beat in this year's Tour de France.  He dominated the final sprint, showing an explosive ability that had my jaw on the floor.  He was pretty excited to win today's stage and grab the yellow jersey!
My jaw was on the floor for more than just the final sprint.  For this year's longest stage, I couldn't believe the speeds the cyclists were able to maintain.  I thought yesterday's stage was the ultra-fast stage that I miss every year.  But today's stage gave me, if not my worst prediction, nearly my worst prediction (I have to check).
  • Stage 6:  4h 27' 13" (actual), 5h 06' 53" (prediction), 39' 40" slow (14.84% error)
Yeesh!  Check out Pogačar's average speed for today's 219.9-km (136.6-mi) stage.
  • Stage 6:  13.72 m/s (49.38 kph or 30.68 mph)
With super-fast stages, I want to learn something about what elite athletes can do.  I will need a lot more time to digest what I witnessed today.  Stage 1's 13.2-km (8.2-mi) individual time trial, during which cyclists were going all out, saw the winner with an average speed of 51.78 kph (32.17 mph).  Cyclists were going at that rate during much of today's stage -- and they already had five stages under their belts!  A quick calculation shows that I needed nearly 40% more cyclist power output (or peloton power output) on much of today's stage.  I'm as flummoxed as I've ever been in nearly two decades modeling the Tour de France.

Wout van Aert and his yellow jersey were attacked mercilessly today, and he earned the most combative rider with an admirable effort to hold onto the lead.  But he fell to 103rd place, 7' 28" behind Pogačar.  The last rider to finish today was nearly 16 minutes off the winning time, still much faster than our prediction.  The yellow jersey attacks pushed speeds to heights I'd not seen before.  Can these ridiculous speeds continue???

Tomorrow's 176.3-km (109.5-mi) Stage 7 is nearly a repeat of Stage 7 in the Tour de France ten years ago, though this year's version is a bit shorter.  Both Stage 7s have the same endpoints.  Beginning in the French commune of Tomblaine, riders will head south to La Planche des Belles Filles in the Vosges Mountains.  This year's first mountain stage will have a great category-1 climb to the finish.  Our prediction is given below.
  • Stage 7:  4h 11' 24" (prediction)
After yesterday and today, I won't be surprised if we are slow again!

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