19 July 2022

Hugo Houle Gets Emotional Stage Win!

I learned while watching today's Stage 16 of the Tour de France that Hugo Houle lost his brother, Pierrick, ten years ago when a drunk driver stuck him as he was running.  Houle's win today was dedicated to his brother.
Our string of three straight predictions with less than 1% error ended today, but we still had a good prediction.
  • Stage 16:  4h 23' 47" (actual), 4h 18' 22" (prediction), 05' 25" fast (-2.05% error)
Tadej Pogačar attacked three times, but Jonas Vingegaard never faltered.  The breakaway took the stage.  Check out Houle's average speed.
  • Stage 16:  11.28 m/s (40.60  kph or 25.23 mph)
I thought the winner's average speed would be a tad faster, but I'll take a 2% error!  We actually did better modeling the GC contenders.

Tomorrow's 129.7-km (80.59-mi) mountain stage begins in the French commune of Saint-Gaudens and takes riders into the Pyrenees, culminating in an hors catégorie finish at the ski resort of Peyragudes.  Our prediction is given below.
  • Stage 17:  3h 27' 32" (prediction)
Can Pogačar make a successful attack on Vingegaard?  Pogačar will need that to happen soon or he'll finish second this year!

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