05 July 2017

One great precition, one not-so-great prediction ...

Stage 4 finished for us rather well, but not so well for the riders involved in the controversial crash.  It's a shame Peter Sagan won't be in the rest of the race.  He is a great cyclist to watch, but his elbow cost him a chance at another points title.  I'll also miss seeing Mark Cavendish, who was the unfortunate recipient of Sagan's elbow.

Today's Stage 5 had a grueling climb at the finish, but cyclists completed the stage much faster than we anticipated.  We thought perhaps a little energy would be kept in storage today, but only three of the 193 cyclists were slower than our prediction.

Below are comparisons for the past two stages.
  • Stage 4:  4h 53' 54" (actual), 4h 48' 37" (prediction), 05' 17" fast (-1.80% error)
  • Stage 5:  3h 44' 06" (actual), 4h 04' 49" (prediction), 20' 43" slow (9.24% error)
When I return from traveling, I'll need to look at Stage 5 more closely and determine where we were slow.  The first part of the stage to check will be the final climb.

Below are predictions for the next four stages.  That will take us to the first rest day on Monday.
  • Stage 6:  4h 56' 51" (prediction)
  • Stage 7:  4h 56' 08" (prediction)
  • Stage 8:  4h 51' 54" (prediction)
  • Stage 9:  5h 11' 15" (prediction)
With Chris Froome in the yellow jersey and the big climbs still to come, can anyone keep him from winning his fourth Tour de France???

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