Great Stage 9 Pick and Stage 10 Prediction

I was traveling yesterday, so I missed watching Stage 9 of the Tour de France.  That grueling mountain stage is one I'll have to catch on replay.  Below is a comparison between the actual winning time and our prediction.

• Stage 9:  5h 07' 22" (actual), 5h 11' 15" (prediction), 03' 53" slow (1.26% error)

I'll definitely take that error!  We nailed the first mountain stage.  Below is our Stage 10 prediction:

• Stage 10:  4h 05 31" (prediction)

I fully expect at least one cyclist to come in under four hours.  But what will strategies be like?  Will a relatively short flat stage after a rest day be competed for in an all-out manner?  Will cyclists save up for a longer flat stage the next day?  The leaders in the full classification certainly won't be going all-out for the win.  But will their teams reign in breakout cyclists going for glory?  It will be interesting to see what happens after the first rest day.