13 July 2016

Sagan gets #2!

Peter Sagan won a very fast Stage 11 today.  Below is Sagan's winning time and a comparison with our prediciton.
  • Stage 11:  3h 26' 23" (actual), 3h 45' 22" (prediction), 18' 59" slow (9.20% error)
Sagan's average speed is given below.
  • Stage 11:  13.12 m/s (47.24 kph or 29.35 mph)
I confess that I am stunned by that average speed.  Cyclists were fast today!  I can't imagine that average speed for myself.  Tour de France cyclists are the best of the best for sure.  Did they know ahead of time that tomorrow's massive climb to Mount Ventoux was going to be cut short because of massive winds at the summit?  They had to know they'd not need to save as much energy for tomorrow.

We learned that the final 6.5 km of tomorrow's last climb will be cut from the stage.  Below is our original prediction, our original prediction for the final 22 km, and our prediction based on removing the final 6.5 km.
  • Stage 12:  4h 55' 23" (prediction)
  • Stage 12:  58' 54" (prediction for final 22 km)
  • Stage 12:  4h 37' 31" (prediction with final 6.5 km missing)
If the race committee does exclude the final 6.5 km, we'll go with the last time on the above list as our prediction.  It's too bad the final climb has to be cut short.  We've been waiting on that climb since it was released.

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