06 July 2016

Our model does the job today!

After yesterday's disastrous decision to drop cyclist power output by 20%, and thus missing the chance to have publicly predicted Stage 4 to 0.24%, we put our trust in our model for today's Stage 5.  It sure paid off!  Belgium's Greg Van Avermaet got his second career individual stage win in the Tour de France, and he wrested the yellow jersey from Peter Sagan.  Below is Avi's winning time and a comparison with our prediction.
  • Stage 5:  5h 31' 36" (actual), 5h 29' 33" (prediction), 02' 03" fast (-0.62% error) 
It's great being back under 1%!  Below is Avi's average speed.
  • Stage 5:  10.86 m/s (39.08 kph or 24.29 mph)
Given the climbs in today's stage, that's an impressive average speed.

Tomorrow's Stage 6 is a 190.5-km (118.4-mi) flat stage with an impressive downhill just 23.5 km (14.6 mi) into the stage.  Beginning in the commune of Arpajon-sur-Cère, cyclists will head southwest to Montauban.  The Pyrenees are getting closer!  Below is our prediction.
  • Stage 6:  4h 21' 26" (prediction)
We're sticking with our model -- no power tweaking.  I'll be anxious to see if we've figured out Stage 6.

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