07 July 2021

We Nearly Nail Wout van Aert's Great Ride!

Wout van Aert showed today why he's such a dominating young force in cycling.  He left his competition behind on the final climb and won today's Stage 11 of the Tour de France by more than a minute.  For all the attacking that took place, Wout van Aert withstood all challengers to set up an emotional ride across the finish line.
I was actually hoping he would push a tad harder to the finish line so that we could have a shot at a perfect prediction.  That's a silly thing to root for!
  • Stage 11:  5h 17' 43" (actual), 5h 16' 02" (prediction), 01' 41" fast (-0.53% error)
We really nailed that stage-winning time!  Check out Wout van Aert's average speed.
  • Stage 11:  10.43 m/s (37.56 kph or 23.34 mph)
That's a terrific average speed for such a grueling mountain stage!

Tomorrow's Stage 12 is flat and relatively short at 159.4 km (99.05 mi).  It begins in the commune of Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux and takes riders southwest to Nîmes.  Our prediction is given below.
  • Stage 12:  3h 39' 30" (prediction)
It's always hard to read a stage like this one.  It's flat and fairly short, so the GC contenders are likely to stay together in the peloton.  There could be some attacking and a few riders going all out to win the stage.  I don't think we'll be fast, but we could be slow.

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