Slovenian Matej Mohorič won a wild stage today. Crashes and a shakeup in the general classification were part of a second straight stage that had me shaking my head at the winner's average speed. This super-long stage was FAST!
As Mohorič said in his post-race interview, he can keep up a great pace on a long stage. Check out how he did against our prediction.
- Stage 7: 5h 28' 20" (actual), 5h 47' 52" (prediction), 19' 32" slow (5.95% error)
That's about twice the error I like to see. We were better than yesterday, but I want us back under 3%. Mohorič biked this stage like it was the only stage in the race. He was flat-out great in the saddle today. Check out his average speed.
- Stage 7: 12.64 m/s (45.52 kph or 28.29 mph)
I thought we would be too fast today! The Tour de France organizers had 43 kph (27 mph) as the top average speed estimate in their time schedule. The various attacks kept pace up. Mathieu van der Poel retains the yellow jersey after a strong ride. Last year's winner, Tadej Pogačar, fought hard at the end and stayed in contention, despite losing more than three-and-a-half minutes off the yellow jersey.
We did better modeling Mark Cavendish today, who came in 153th place, than we did modeling the winner. The incredible speeds yesterday and today will certainly be something we need to study!
Tomorrow's Stage 8 is the first mountain stage. It begins in eastern France in the commune of Oyonnax and goes 150.8 km (93.7 mi) southeast to Le Grand-Bornand. Three category-1 climbs await riders in the latter half of the stage, and a downhill finish should make for a fast sprint to the line. Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 8: 3h 58' 43" (prediction)
After the last two stages, I can't help but wonder if a rider will go ballistic tomorrow and come in well under our time. However our prediction fares, I can't wait to see the climbers on Col de la Colombière!
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