Matej Mohorič did in today's Stage 19 what he did in Stage 7. He blew away his competition -- and our model! -- with a stunningly fast stage. He rode the final 25 km (16 mi) as if he were riding a time trial. He stayed in his biggest gear and grinded out those final 25 km in the blink of an eye.
Check out Mohorič's obliteration of our model.
- Stage 19: 4h 19' 17" (actual), 4h 37' 30" (prediction), 18' 13" slow (7.03% error)
Yeesh, that is not a good error. But look at Mohorič's average speed.
- Stage 19: 13.31 m/s (47.90 kph or 29.76 mph)
I cannot believe he averaged nearly 48 kph (30 mph) on a 207-km (129-mi) long stage! The Tour de France organizers estimated 45 kph (28 mph) as the top average speed on their time schedule. Mohorič also blew away the Stage 7 time schedule. When he decides to go for a stage win, he goes all out!
The peloton and the yellow jersey came in nearly 21' after Mohorič crossed the line. As with Stage 7, we did a great job modeling the peloton! We will have to think about power outputs on stages where lone cyclists are likely to go bananas!
Tomorrow's Stage 20 is a 30.8-km (19.1-mi) individual time trial. Picking up in Libourne, cyclists will head around a clockwise loop to the east and finish in Saint-Émilion. Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 20: 36' 40" (prediction)
I doubt much will change in the GC classification after tomorrow's stage, but it will be exciting to watch nonetheless!
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