04 July 2021

Ben O'Connor Dominates Stage 9 -- and Nearly Grabs Yellow!

Ben O'Connor made Australia proud today with a dominating ride that showed what an incredible climber he is.  After yesterday's seemingly super-human performance by Tadej Pogačar, the yellow jersey looked safe on Pogačar.  But O'Connor had the ride of his life today and vaulted up to the overall lead for several kilometers during today's stage before Pogačar exploded at the end of the final climb to maintain the yellow jersey.  O'Connor is now second in the general classification, 2' 01" behind Pogačar.  Instead of putting an image of O'Connor at the line, I'll opt instead for a shot of O'Connor on the podium.  He won the stage by more than five minutes!
As O'Connor said after the race, today's conditions were "atrocious."  It didn't take long after the stage began for me to realize that our prediction was going to be much too fast.  It was pouring the rain for much of the stage.  And it was cold; temperatures dipped below 9 C (48 F).  With such treacherous conditions, all I can do is note that we can't know the weather on each stage prior to the start of the Tour de France.
  • Stage 9:  4h 26' 43" (actual), 4h 07' 31" (prediction), 19' 12" fast (-7.20% error)
Cyclists were changing jerseys, getting waterlogged, fumbling with gloves to keep their hands warm, and constantly eating gels to maintain energy balance.  With stages like today's that are riddled with horrible weather, we simply have to eat a fast prediction.  Check out O'Connor's average speed.
  • Stage 9:  9.05 m/s (32.60 kph or 20.25 mph)
All is not lost today with modeling because I get to learn a lot more about cycling in poor weather.  We hit two thirds of the first nine stages quite well.  Two other stages saw faster-than-expected speeds, and today's stage had weather issues.

Tomorrow is the first of two rest days in the Tour de France.  Cyclists will remain in Tignes for their much-deserved day of rest.  I'll celebrate 4th of July here for the rest of today, and tomorrow I'll post our prediction for Tuesday's Stage 10.

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